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The PHIA Probability
Yardstick
Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The
intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These
terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements
as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data.
A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability.
This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use
of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the
inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to
occur, then y might happen’).
The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale
into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range.
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The PHIA Probability
Yardstick
Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The
intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These
terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements
as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data.
A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability.
This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use
of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the
inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to
occur, then y might happen’).
The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale
into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range.
source
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Telegram has become more interventionist over time, and has steadily increased its efforts to shut down these accounts. But this has also meant that the company has also engaged with lawmakers more generally, although it maintains that it doesn’t do so willingly. For instance, in September 2021, Telegram reportedly blocked a chat bot in support of (Putin critic) Alexei Navalny during Russia’s most recent parliamentary elections. Pavel Durov was quoted at the time saying that the company was obliged to follow a “legitimate” law of the land. He added that as Apple and Google both follow the law, to violate it would give both platforms a reason to boot the messenger from its stores. As the war in Ukraine rages, the messaging app Telegram has emerged as the go-to place for unfiltered live war updates for both Ukrainian refugees and increasingly isolated Russians alike. Perpetrators of these scams will create a public group on Telegram to promote these investment packages that are usually accompanied by fake testimonies and sometimes advertised as being Shariah-compliant. Interested investors will be asked to directly message the representatives to begin investing in the various investment packages offered. Continuing its crackdown against entities allegedly involved in a front-running scam using messaging app Telegram, Sebi on Thursday carried out search and seizure operations at the premises of eight entities in multiple locations across the country. Under the Sebi Act, the regulator has the power to carry out search and seizure of books, registers, documents including electronics and digital devices from any person associated with the securities market.
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