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Global Rate Cuts Accelerate

Central banks slashed rates 15 times in May — the fastest pace this year and among the largest waves this century.

For context: 50 cuts happened in March 2020, 29 in December 2008.

Europe just made its 8th cut this cycle, while the Fed remains on pause.

Monetary policy is diverging amid growing uncertainty.
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Trade Watcher
JUST IN: Trump announces new pharma tariffs are imminent. He states he's not inclined to negotiate with Iran and claims the EU hasn't presented a fair deal yet.
EU says trade negotiations with the US are “making progress” as talks intensify.
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JUST IN: The US is deploying fighter jets to the Middle East and prolonging warplane missions to strengthen defenses due to the Israel-Iran conflict, according to US officials.
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JUST IN: The Supreme Court has been requested to review the challenge against Trump's global tariffs.
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BREAKING : President Trump is seriously considering joining the war on Iran and launching a strike against its nuclear facilities, as per Axios.
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JUST IN: The US is relocating additional fighter jets to the Middle East and extending the deployment of existing air assets in the region.
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JUST IN: Iran's top army commander urges Israelis to leave Haifa and Tel Aviv promptly, reports Mehr News.
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JUST IN: Israeli intelligence indicates Iran is developing a nuclear bomb trigger - WSJ.
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JUST IN: Fox News reports that the US is considering strikes on Iran, including targeting nuclear sites, as stated by White House officials.
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JUST IN: Trump will make a press statement following the National Security Council meeting.
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JUST IN: President Trump is weighing the option of US strikes on Iran, according to WSJ reports. This is among various possibilities being considered.
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JUST IN: Iran readies missiles and military gear to target US bases if the US enters the conflict - NYT.
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anticipation behaviour:

max pain scenarios tends to mean new positions being forced offside.

traders anticipate pivots being taken often acting early on impulse.

- shorting in anticipation of a low being swept.
- longing in anticipation of a high being swept.

example ↑
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98% chance Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged today, according to Polymarket.
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JUST IN: Iran's UN Ambassador in Geneva warns that Iran will retaliate against the US if they determine it's directly involved in attacks on Iran.
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Degen or genius? A $2.39M bet on today’s Fed decision.

A trader going by the nickname bobe2 placed 2.447M “Yes” bets on the “No change” outcome via Polymarket — spending over $2.39M.

If correct, the payout will exceed $2.447M.
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Trade Watcher
JUST IN: Khamenei states Iran won't agree to enforced peace or war.
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Trade Watcher
JUST IN: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei firmly rejects Trump's plea for surrender, stating they will not yield to any attacks.
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Trade Watcher
Middle East Tensions Reach a Breaking Point

Trump is now openly considering joining Israel in a war against Iran. That decision would expose U.S. bases across the region to retaliation — and could trigger full-scale military escalation.

Markets are starting to price this in:
• VIX is back above 20
• Traders now need both trade war insurance and hot war insurance
• One strike on a U.S. base could flip this market upside down

You can’t be too bearish right now.
The geopolitical risk premium is back — and it’s not priced in.
11.6K views
2025/06/24 19:18:57
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