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Мне кажется, формула всё-таки выглядит так: КС = a+n, где: а — консенсус аналитиков n — ±1 в зависимости от позиции ретроградного Меркурия за сутки перед заседанием
🔮 По нашим оценкам, порядка 13% ослабления рубля было связано с избыточным смягчением денежной политики в 2022

Ставка в 15% соответствует близка к нейтральной/оценке ставки исходя из текущего состояния деловой активности и темпа роста цен, =>, возвращает равновесный курс USDRUB в диапазон 85-90

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🔮 По нашим оценкам, порядка 13% ослабления рубля было связано с избыточным смягчением денежной политики в 2022

Ставка в 15% соответствует близка к нейтральной/оценке ставки исходя из текущего состояния деловой активности и темпа роста цен, =>, возвращает равновесный курс USDRUB в диапазон 85-90

@c0ldness

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Ukrainian forces have since put up a strong resistance to the Russian troops amid the war that has left hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, including children, dead, according to the United Nations. Ukrainian and international officials have accused Russia of targeting civilian populations with shelling and bombardments. Telegram was founded in 2013 by two Russian brothers, Nikolai and Pavel Durov. The account, "War on Fakes," was created on February 24, the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" and troops began invading Ukraine. The page is rife with disinformation, according to The Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, which studies digital extremism and published a report examining the channel. Overall, extreme levels of fear in the market seems to have morphed into something more resembling concern. For example, the Cboe Volatility Index fell from its 2022 peak of 36, which it hit Monday, to around 30 on Friday, a sign of easing tensions. Meanwhile, while the price of WTI crude oil slipped from Sunday’s multiyear high $130 of barrel to $109 a pop. Markets have been expecting heavy restrictions on Russian oil, some of which the U.S. has already imposed, and that would reduce the global supply and bring about even more burdensome inflation.
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