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Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Prediction market odds of a recession hitting in 2025 have fallen to a new low of 27%.

Since November 1st, odds of a recession beginning in 2025 have HALVED, from 54% to 27%, according to @Kalshi.

Meanwhile, GDP growth estimates are rising with ~3% GDP growth expected in Q4 2024.

As inflation rebounds and the Fed cuts rates, markets are pricing-in a lower probability of a recession.

Are rate hikes coming back?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)



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BREAKING: Prediction market odds of a recession hitting in 2025 have fallen to a new low of 27%.

Since November 1st, odds of a recession beginning in 2025 have HALVED, from 54% to 27%, according to @Kalshi.

Meanwhile, GDP growth estimates are rising with ~3% GDP growth expected in Q4 2024.

As inflation rebounds and the Fed cuts rates, markets are pricing-in a lower probability of a recession.

Are rate hikes coming back?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

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The picture was mixed overseas. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%, under pressure from U.S. regulatory scrutiny on New York-listed Chinese companies. Stocks were more buoyant in Europe, where Frankfurt’s DAX surged 1.4%. "There is a significant risk of insider threat or hacking of Telegram systems that could expose all of these chats to the Russian government," said Eva Galperin with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, which has called for Telegram to improve its privacy practices. "Someone posing as a Ukrainian citizen just joins the chat and starts spreading misinformation, or gathers data, like the location of shelters," Tsekhanovska said, noting how false messages have urged Ukrainians to turn off their phones at a specific time of night, citing cybersafety. And while money initially moved into stocks in the morning, capital moved out of safe-haven assets. The price of the 10-year Treasury note fell Friday, sending its yield up to 2% from a March closing low of 1.73%. WhatsApp, a rival messaging platform, introduced some measures to counter disinformation when Covid-19 was first sweeping the world.
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