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Сейчас есть консенсус среди политологов, что весь мир усиленно автократизируется. Однако на фоне этой автократизации остается незамеченным ещё один факт: авторитарные режимы стали гораздо устойчивее, чем их предшественники.

Эрика Франц пишет, что в самый разгар холодной войны (с 1950-х по 1970-е) средняя выживаемость автократий достигала 5-15 лет. Да, их было гораздо больше, чем сейчас, но срок их существования был гораздо короче. Однако на сегодняшний день средний срок жизни диктатуры достиг показателя в размере 30 лет.

Что думаете? С чем это может быть связано?

Frantz, Erica. "Authoritarian survival." Research Handbook on Authoritarianism. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024. 229-243.

А.Т.

#кратко

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Сейчас есть консенсус среди политологов, что весь мир усиленно автократизируется. Однако на фоне этой автократизации остается незамеченным ещё один факт: авторитарные режимы стали гораздо устойчивее, чем их предшественники.

Эрика Франц пишет, что в самый разгар холодной войны (с 1950-х по 1970-е) средняя выживаемость автократий достигала 5-15 лет. Да, их было гораздо больше, чем сейчас, но срок их существования был гораздо короче. Однако на сегодняшний день средний срок жизни диктатуры достиг показателя в размере 30 лет.

Что думаете? С чем это может быть связано?

Frantz, Erica. "Authoritarian survival." Research Handbook on Authoritarianism. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024. 229-243.

А.Т.

#кратко

🔻Подпишись на Political Animals

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Telegram has gained a reputation as the “secure” communications app in the post-Soviet states, but whenever you make choices about your digital security, it’s important to start by asking yourself, “What exactly am I securing? And who am I securing it from?” These questions should inform your decisions about whether you are using the right tool or platform for your digital security needs. Telegram is certainly not the most secure messaging app on the market right now. Its security model requires users to place a great deal of trust in Telegram’s ability to protect user data. For some users, this may be good enough for now. For others, it may be wiser to move to a different platform for certain kinds of high-risk communications. You may recall that, back when Facebook started changing WhatsApp’s terms of service, a number of news outlets reported on, and even recommended, switching to Telegram. Pavel Durov even said that users should delete WhatsApp “unless you are cool with all of your photos and messages becoming public one day.” But Telegram can’t be described as a more-secure version of WhatsApp. There was another possible development: Reuters also reported that Ukraine said that Belarus could soon join the invasion of Ukraine. However, the AFP, citing a Pentagon official, said the U.S. hasn’t yet seen evidence that Belarusian troops are in Ukraine. "We're seeing really dramatic moves, and it's all really tied to Ukraine right now, and in a secondary way, in terms of interest rates," Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Opimas, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "This war in Ukraine is going to give the Fed the ammunition, the cover that it needs, to not raise interest rates too quickly. And I think Jay Powell is a very tepid sort of inflation fighter and he's not going to do as much as he needs to do to get that under control. And this seems like an excuse to kick the can further down the road still and not do too much too soon." These entities are reportedly operating nine Telegram channels with more than five million subscribers to whom they were making recommendations on selected listed scrips. Such recommendations induced the investors to deal in the said scrips, thereby creating artificial volume and price rise.
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