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ХОЛОДНЫЙ РАСЧЕТ ∅ | Telegram Webview: c0ldness/4425 -
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🕊 Как рубль и рынки реагируют на геополитические шоки?

• За прошедшие 15 лет гео-экономические шоки стали одним из основных драйверов российских рынков

• Эти шоки генерируют события в и вокруг России: развал сделки OPEC+, мятеж Пригожина или эскалация вооруженных конфликтов

• Застраховаться от этих шоков или дорого, или невозможно, но полезно иметь представление о закономерностях в реакции рынков

• Чтобы обобщить эти закономерности реакции рынка на шоки мы собрали выборку из порядка 15 крупных шоков с 2008 года по настоящее время

Каковы результаты?

@c0ldness
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🕊 Как рубль и рынки реагируют на геополитические шоки?

• За прошедшие 15 лет гео-экономические шоки стали одним из основных драйверов российских рынков

• Эти шоки генерируют события в и вокруг России: развал сделки OPEC+, мятеж Пригожина или эскалация вооруженных конфликтов

• Застраховаться от этих шоков или дорого, или невозможно, но полезно иметь представление о закономерностях в реакции рынков

• Чтобы обобщить эти закономерности реакции рынка на шоки мы собрали выборку из порядка 15 крупных шоков с 2008 года по настоящее время

Каковы результаты?

@c0ldness

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a driving force in markets for the past few weeks. Telegram was co-founded by Pavel and Nikolai Durov, the brothers who had previously created VKontakte. VK is Russia’s equivalent of Facebook, a social network used for public and private messaging, audio and video sharing as well as online gaming. In January, SimpleWeb reported that VK was Russia’s fourth most-visited website, after Yandex, YouTube and Google’s Russian-language homepage. In 2016, Forbes’ Michael Solomon described Pavel Durov (pictured, below) as the “Mark Zuckerberg of Russia.” Continuing its crackdown against entities allegedly involved in a front-running scam using messaging app Telegram, Sebi on Thursday carried out search and seizure operations at the premises of eight entities in multiple locations across the country. This ability to mix the public and the private, as well as the ability to use bots to engage with users has proved to be problematic. In early 2021, a database selling phone numbers pulled from Facebook was selling numbers for $20 per lookup. Similarly, security researchers found a network of deepfake bots on the platform that were generating images of people submitted by users to create non-consensual imagery, some of which involved children. Telegram has become more interventionist over time, and has steadily increased its efforts to shut down these accounts. But this has also meant that the company has also engaged with lawmakers more generally, although it maintains that it doesn’t do so willingly. For instance, in September 2021, Telegram reportedly blocked a chat bot in support of (Putin critic) Alexei Navalny during Russia’s most recent parliamentary elections. Pavel Durov was quoted at the time saying that the company was obliged to follow a “legitimate” law of the land. He added that as Apple and Google both follow the law, to violate it would give both platforms a reason to boot the messenger from its stores.
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