Golden Nuggets

JPM_Metals_Weekly_Who_is_2024-12-13_4866608-output.pdf

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Отчет JPM на тему того, кто будет основными покупателями в золоте в будущем году. Если коротко - центробанки и китайские инвесторы.

▪️Amid gold’s ~30% rally so far this year and its post-election set back, we have encountered some client skepticism on our continued bullish forecast
through 2025.
▪️While clients are not explicitly bearish on gold, the pushback has generally centered around uncertainty about who is going to be the major buyer of gold next year with prices already at these levels.
▪️Under a disruptive macro scenario (increased tariffs, surging trade tensions, stronger inflation, sizeable US budget deficit expansion) we think central bank purchases and China retail demand in particular could be a source of stronger demand in 2025.
▪️Reported central bank buying activity ticked up in October while the PBoC returned to purchasing gold in November, the first time since pausing reported purchases in April. In the note below, we examine where the most opportunity lies in the official sector amid a ongoing shift of CB dollar diversification and gold purchasing.
▪️We also think there is a strong case for Chinese investment demand to remain robust next year, particularly if the CNY continues to weaken and the PBoC continues to buy. Recent periods of relatively sharp CNY devaluations have coincided with strong Chinese gold import demand.
▪️Overall, global investors hold around 2% of financial assets in gold and could be inclined to further increase allocations to bullion if inflationary pressures and worries about debt debasement resurface meaningfully.
▪️The one area where capacity for significant further additions looks the most challenged is in financial gold markets with COMEX investor positioning still rather long from a historical context.
▪️Under a more benign macro environment that refocuses attention on a Fed cutting cycle, we still think ETFs is the area for more significant catchup growth with notional ETF holdings still remaining ~10% lower than the peak in 2020.

@gold_headlines

www.group-telegram.com/cn/gold_headlines.com/1035

381 viewsDec 26 at 13:35

Отчет JPM на тему того, кто будет основными покупателями в золоте в будущем году. Если коротко - центробанки и китайские инвесторы.

▪️Amid gold’s ~30% rally so far this year and its post-election set back, we have encountered some client skepticism on our continued bullish forecast
through 2025.
▪️While clients are not explicitly bearish on gold, the pushback has generally centered around uncertainty about who is going to be the major buyer of gold next year with prices already at these levels.
▪️Under a disruptive macro scenario (increased tariffs, surging trade tensions, stronger inflation, sizeable US budget deficit expansion) we think central bank purchases and China retail demand in particular could be a source of stronger demand in 2025.
▪️Reported central bank buying activity ticked up in October while the PBoC returned to purchasing gold in November, the first time since pausing reported purchases in April. In the note below, we examine where the most opportunity lies in the official sector amid a ongoing shift of CB dollar diversification and gold purchasing.
▪️We also think there is a strong case for Chinese investment demand to remain robust next year, particularly if the CNY continues to weaken and the PBoC continues to buy. Recent periods of relatively sharp CNY devaluations have coincided with strong Chinese gold import demand.
▪️Overall, global investors hold around 2% of financial assets in gold and could be inclined to further increase allocations to bullion if inflationary pressures and worries about debt debasement resurface meaningfully.
▪️The one area where capacity for significant further additions looks the most challenged is in financial gold markets with COMEX investor positioning still rather long from a historical context.
▪️Under a more benign macro environment that refocuses attention on a Fed cutting cycle, we still think ETFs is the area for more significant catchup growth with notional ETF holdings still remaining ~10% lower than the peak in 2020.

@gold_headlines

BY Golden Nuggets