Meanwhile, the contract tracking odds of Greenland acquisition by the end of 2025 is trading at 19 cents. Up from 11 cents a week ago.
#AmericanDynamism #factoftheday #twotypesofpeople
#AmericanDynamism #factoftheday #twotypesofpeople
Polymarket
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of…
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of…
The most important function of an open market is the price signals it generates. These signals, in theory, adjust the future behavior of participants, ensuring optimal use of scarce resources. For example, if the price of fire insurance increases, a possible outcome is the construction of fireproof homes using new technologies or fewer constructions in fire-prone areas.
What happens when the government intervenes in the market and dictates prices? If prices are lower than would've been otherwise, shortages of goods and services will take place. The Soviet Union in the past and Cuba today are great examples of that. Wasteful oversupply occurs when a dictated price is higher.
A democracy operates under vox populi principle. Thus the government is a collective will of voters. Since voters are humans they exhibit human-like behavior. That is to get things for less and ensure bargains into the future.
In states like California and Florida, an insurance commissioner, who is elected, prohibits insurance companies from pricing risks based on future expectations of natural disasters. Premiums were allowed to go higher so long as actuarial models were supported by past events only. Since natural disasters occur more frequently, looking into a rearview mirror to calculate premiums will ensure prompt bankruptcies of insurance companies. Since the government cannot force the rendering of services from private actors, the industry reacted with a very rational decision and mostly left these states. Acquiring fire insurance in parts of LA became problematic. The number of homes without one jumped. Coverages have gotten thinner from a remaining state-funded company. That was the backdrop before the recent devastating fires.
For more nuanced coverage take a listen at Patrick Boyle's video.
#economics #ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
January 2025
What happens when the government intervenes in the market and dictates prices? If prices are lower than would've been otherwise, shortages of goods and services will take place. The Soviet Union in the past and Cuba today are great examples of that. Wasteful oversupply occurs when a dictated price is higher.
A democracy operates under vox populi principle. Thus the government is a collective will of voters. Since voters are humans they exhibit human-like behavior. That is to get things for less and ensure bargains into the future.
In states like California and Florida, an insurance commissioner, who is elected, prohibits insurance companies from pricing risks based on future expectations of natural disasters. Premiums were allowed to go higher so long as actuarial models were supported by past events only. Since natural disasters occur more frequently, looking into a rearview mirror to calculate premiums will ensure prompt bankruptcies of insurance companies. Since the government cannot force the rendering of services from private actors, the industry reacted with a very rational decision and mostly left these states. Acquiring fire insurance in parts of LA became problematic. The number of homes without one jumped. Coverages have gotten thinner from a remaining state-funded company. That was the backdrop before the recent devastating fires.
For more nuanced coverage take a listen at Patrick Boyle's video.
#economics #ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
January 2025
Bloomberg.com
These Homes Withstood the LA Fires. Architects Explain Why
In Pacific Palisades and Malibu, some houses with fire-resistant designs remained standing amid neighborhoods of destruction.
First day on the job and DJT is down 12%. Symbolism is off the charts!
#factoftheday
#factoftheday
It so happens that media in general, and financial, in particular, is biased toward negativity. Progress is slow, and efficiency gains are in the shadows, but alarmism attracts viewers and sells ads. It's easy to take a position on the market, bullish or bearish, and dig up supporting evidence. In the industry, it's called "talking your book". It's an intersection between wishful thinking and confirmation bias. Yet, every time one gets a conviction it's worth remembering that markets are what they are because of a wide range of opinions — often opposed ones.
The following are succinct points for each side.
Bearish:
- Stubborn inflation. High and rising rates will eventually break something.
- Monetary tightening by the FED.
- Elevated valuations. P/E, CAPE, or anything else.
- Extreme concentration of leadership in the market.
- High and rising public debt. Interest payments exceeded the DOD budget.
- Strong dollar (DXY).
- Insurance liabilities for LA fires.
- Office real estate woes on balance sheets of regional banks.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary spending for new buyers by a sizeable amount. Big increases in home insurance.
- Risk of sizeable deportations.
- David Rosenberg.
Bullish:
- American exceptionalism. A strong economy, low unemployment, and healthy job growth.
- Salary increases outpace inflation. Even more so for skilled workers at the top.
-High Normal interest rates.
- Continuation of high CAPEX spending, AI investments, factories, and data center construction.
- $2T of deficit spending.
- Expected deregulation from the new administration.
- Onshoring.
- 20% of mortgages are below 3%. 55% of mortgages are below 4%. 40% of homes carry no mortgage.
- Population growth
- Jim Bianco (neutral)
Pick your poison.
#finance
January 2025
The following are succinct points for each side.
Bearish:
- Stubborn inflation. High and rising rates will eventually break something.
- Monetary tightening by the FED.
- Elevated valuations. P/E, CAPE, or anything else.
- Extreme concentration of leadership in the market.
- High and rising public debt. Interest payments exceeded the DOD budget.
- Strong dollar (DXY).
- Insurance liabilities for LA fires.
- Office real estate woes on balance sheets of regional banks.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary spending for new buyers by a sizeable amount. Big increases in home insurance.
- Risk of sizeable deportations.
- David Rosenberg.
Bullish:
- American exceptionalism. A strong economy, low unemployment, and healthy job growth.
- Salary increases outpace inflation. Even more so for skilled workers at the top.
-
- Continuation of high CAPEX spending, AI investments, factories, and data center construction.
- $2T of deficit spending.
- Expected deregulation from the new administration.
- Onshoring.
- 20% of mortgages are below 3%. 55% of mortgages are below 4%. 40% of homes carry no mortgage.
- Population growth
- Jim Bianco (neutral)
Pick your poison.
#finance
January 2025
Проблема общих и статичных утверждений, игнорирующих маржинальные изменения на конкретном примере.
Часто можно услышать о проблеме американского гос. долга, как о надвигающемся экзистенциональном кризисе. В следствие чего процентные ставки улетят в космос и всё будет очень грустно. Кроме общей критики, несостоятельность данного аргумента можно обосновать с маржинальных позиций.
График отображает доходность 10-ти летних treasuries. 15-го сентября 2024 был установлен уровень в 3.6%. На данный момент около 4.6%. Это сто базовых пунктов менее чем за полгода или прыжок на 28%. Исторически, годовая волатильность treasuries около 20%. Данный скачок составляет приблизительно 2.3 standard deviations (среднеквадратическое отклонение), т.е. очень редкое явление, лежащее за рамками 99% случаев.
Казалось бы, а при чём тут гос. долг США? А при том, что за указанный период он вырос всего на 4%. Крайне малозначительное изменение.
Получается какие-то другие факторы двинули рынок treasuries, и очень сильно, пока гос. долг каким был таким и остался. Следовательно общий аргумент о размере долга не объясняет изменений с процентными ставками. Он недостаточно гибкий, не учитывает изменений конъюнктуры. Им можно пренебречь.
#finance
Часто можно услышать о проблеме американского гос. долга, как о надвигающемся экзистенциональном кризисе. В следствие чего процентные ставки улетят в космос и всё будет очень грустно. Кроме общей критики, несостоятельность данного аргумента можно обосновать с маржинальных позиций.
График отображает доходность 10-ти летних treasuries. 15-го сентября 2024 был установлен уровень в 3.6%. На данный момент около 4.6%. Это сто базовых пунктов менее чем за полгода или прыжок на 28%. Исторически, годовая волатильность treasuries около 20%. Данный скачок составляет приблизительно 2.3 standard deviations (среднеквадратическое отклонение), т.е. очень редкое явление, лежащее за рамками 99% случаев.
Казалось бы, а при чём тут гос. долг США? А при том, что за указанный период он вырос всего на 4%. Крайне малозначительное изменение.
Получается какие-то другие факторы двинули рынок treasuries, и очень сильно, пока гос. долг каким был таким и остался. Следовательно общий аргумент о размере долга не объясняет изменений с процентными ставками. Он недостаточно гибкий, не учитывает изменений конъюнктуры. Им можно пренебречь.
#finance
Делать громкие заявления для улучшения переговорной позиции наверно можно. Но играть в такие игры лучше при сильных картах. Стратегия постоянного блефа, рано или поздно будет проверена, и если окажется что в руке разномастные 2 и 7, то все игроки поймут с кем имеют дело.
Трамп громко заявлял о возможном введении 25% тарифов в отношении Канады и Мексики. А вот ответ из Канады похоже не имел такого широкого освещения в медиа. Хотя он был прекрасен.
Doug Ford, премьер провинции Онтарио, самой большой в Канаде, заявил о контр мерах в форме отключения электричества для США. Это зацепит штаты Мичиган, Висконсин и Нью-Йорк. Наверно не только их.
CNN ссылаясь на US Energy Information Administration сообщает, что США в 2023 импортировали 38.9 миллионов мегаватт часов электричества из которых на Канаду пришлось 33.2 миллиона. Это на 30% меньше, чем годом ранее и представляет менее 1% от общегодового потребления США. Тем не менее это среднее по палате. Северные штаты более зависимы от импорта электричества.
Вопрос как быстро Трамп растеряет авторитет остается открытым.
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
Трамп громко заявлял о возможном введении 25% тарифов в отношении Канады и Мексики. А вот ответ из Канады похоже не имел такого широкого освещения в медиа. Хотя он был прекрасен.
Doug Ford, премьер провинции Онтарио, самой большой в Канаде, заявил о контр мерах в форме отключения электричества для США. Это зацепит штаты Мичиган, Висконсин и Нью-Йорк. Наверно не только их.
CNN ссылаясь на US Energy Information Administration сообщает, что США в 2023 импортировали 38.9 миллионов мегаватт часов электричества из которых на Канаду пришлось 33.2 миллиона. Это на 30% меньше, чем годом ранее и представляет менее 1% от общегодового потребления США. Тем не менее это среднее по палате. Северные штаты более зависимы от импорта электричества.
Вопрос как быстро Трамп растеряет авторитет остается открытым.
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
For a long time, gold bugs were referencing the above image. In the last decade, they were joined by crypto evangelists. The presented loss of purchasing power is a foundational narrative to recommend alternative stores of value. Despite being factually correct, it misses a boat in what really matters. It's a manipulation by omission.
In an economy, labor sells its skills for money, to trade them for all the things it needs and wants. The money is an abstraction. Goods and services we buy are not. Our well-being, and our standards of living, in a materialistic sense, depend not on how many dollars it takes to buy X, but on how many hours of labor it takes to buy X. Dollars are just an exchange medium.
Additionally, these images don't show the variety of goods and services created over time. We have improvements in medicine, computers, the internet, better housing, airplanes, the list goes on and on. The average folk can buy more today than in the past with fewer hours of labor. Most of these things didn't even exist back then.
That's the true measure of progress and standards of living. Don't be fooled! Don't confuse money and wealth.
#economics #AmericanDynamism
In an economy, labor sells its skills for money, to trade them for all the things it needs and wants. The money is an abstraction. Goods and services we buy are not. Our well-being, and our standards of living, in a materialistic sense, depend not on how many dollars it takes to buy X, but on how many hours of labor it takes to buy X. Dollars are just an exchange medium.
Additionally, these images don't show the variety of goods and services created over time. We have improvements in medicine, computers, the internet, better housing, airplanes, the list goes on and on. The average folk can buy more today than in the past with fewer hours of labor. Most of these things didn't even exist back then.
That's the true measure of progress and standards of living. Don't be fooled! Don't confuse money and wealth.
#economics #AmericanDynamism
On average, more than 100 undersea cables are cut or damaged each year.
#factoftheday
#factoftheday