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❔Где будет ключевая ставка в альтернативных сценариях?

• ЦБ в финальной версии ОНЕГДКП на 2025-27 обновил прогнозы в альтернативных сценариях развития ситуации с учетом недавнего повышения КС

❔Что, если спрос будет выше при тех же производственных возможностях?

💡В 2025 средняя КС составит 20-23% при инфляции в 5.5-6% г/г на конец года

❔Если вырастет потенциал?

💡Последует смягчение ДКП, и средняя КС в 2025 будет 15-18% при возвращении инфляции к цели уже в 2025

❔Если всё плохо?

💡Если реализуется рисковый сценарий со сжатием и спроса, и потенциала, то средняя КС вырастет до 22-25% в 2025 при инфляции в 13-15% г/г по итогам 2025

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Create: 2024-10-30
Last Update: 2025-01-31 23:09:35

❔Где будет ключевая ставка в альтернативных сценариях?

• ЦБ в финальной версии ОНЕГДКП на 2025-27 обновил прогнозы в альтернативных сценариях развития ситуации с учетом недавнего повышения КС

❔Что, если спрос будет выше при тех же производственных возможностях?

💡В 2025 средняя КС составит 20-23% при инфляции в 5.5-6% г/г на конец года

❔Если вырастет потенциал?

💡Последует смягчение ДКП, и средняя КС в 2025 будет 15-18% при возвращении инфляции к цели уже в 2025

❔Если всё плохо?

💡Если реализуется рисковый сценарий со сжатием и спроса, и потенциала, то средняя КС вырастет до 22-25% в 2025 при инфляции в 13-15% г/г по итогам 2025

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Date: 2025-01-31|

Telegram does offer end-to-end encrypted communications through Secret Chats, but this is not the default setting. Standard conversations use the MTProto method, enabling server-client encryption but with them stored on the server for ease-of-access. This makes using Telegram across multiple devices simple, but also means that the regular Telegram chats you’re having with folks are not as secure as you may believe. At this point, however, Durov had already been working on Telegram with his brother, and further planned a mobile-first social network with an explicit focus on anti-censorship. Later in April, he told TechCrunch that he had left Russia and had “no plans to go back,” saying that the nation was currently “incompatible with internet business at the moment.” He added later that he was looking for a country that matched his libertarian ideals to base his next startup. In 2014, Pavel Durov fled the country after allies of the Kremlin took control of the social networking site most know just as VK. Russia's intelligence agency had asked Durov to turn over the data of anti-Kremlin protesters. Durov refused to do so. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% to 4,204.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% to 32,943.33. The Dow posted a fifth straight weekly loss — its longest losing streak since 2019. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.2% to 12,843.81. Though all three indexes opened in the green, stocks took a turn after a new report showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated more than expected in early March as consumers' inflation expectations soared to the highest since 1981. "And that set off kind of a battle royale for control of the platform that Durov eventually lost," said Nathalie Maréchal of the Washington advocacy group Ranking Digital Rights.
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