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❔Где будет ключевая ставка в альтернативных сценариях?

• ЦБ в финальной версии ОНЕГДКП на 2025-27 обновил прогнозы в альтернативных сценариях развития ситуации с учетом недавнего повышения КС

❔Что, если спрос будет выше при тех же производственных возможностях?

💡В 2025 средняя КС составит 20-23% при инфляции в 5.5-6% г/г на конец года

❔Если вырастет потенциал?

💡Последует смягчение ДКП, и средняя КС в 2025 будет 15-18% при возвращении инфляции к цели уже в 2025

❔Если всё плохо?

💡Если реализуется рисковый сценарий со сжатием и спроса, и потенциала, то средняя КС вырастет до 22-25% в 2025 при инфляции в 13-15% г/г по итогам 2025

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4.7K viewsOct 30, 2024 at 17:46

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Create: 2024-10-30
Last Update: 2025-01-31 23:04:30

❔Где будет ключевая ставка в альтернативных сценариях?

• ЦБ в финальной версии ОНЕГДКП на 2025-27 обновил прогнозы в альтернативных сценариях развития ситуации с учетом недавнего повышения КС

❔Что, если спрос будет выше при тех же производственных возможностях?

💡В 2025 средняя КС составит 20-23% при инфляции в 5.5-6% г/г на конец года

❔Если вырастет потенциал?

💡Последует смягчение ДКП, и средняя КС в 2025 будет 15-18% при возвращении инфляции к цели уже в 2025

❔Если всё плохо?

💡Если реализуется рисковый сценарий со сжатием и спроса, и потенциала, то средняя КС вырастет до 22-25% в 2025 при инфляции в 13-15% г/г по итогам 2025

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Date: 2025-01-31|

The news also helped traders look past another report showing decades-high inflation and shake off some of the volatility from recent sessions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' February Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week showed another surge in prices even before Russia escalated its attacks in Ukraine. The headline CPI — soaring 7.9% over last year — underscored the sticky inflationary pressures reverberating across the U.S. economy, with everything from groceries to rents and airline fares getting more expensive for everyday consumers. In addition, Telegram's architecture limits the ability to slow the spread of false information: the lack of a central public feed, and the fact that comments are easily disabled in channels, reduce the space for public pushback. Since January 2022, the SC has received a total of 47 complaints and enquiries on illegal investment schemes promoted through Telegram. These fraudulent schemes offer non-existent investment opportunities, promising very attractive and risk-free returns within a short span of time. They commonly offer unrealistic returns of as high as 1,000% within 24 hours or even within a few hours. This ability to mix the public and the private, as well as the ability to use bots to engage with users has proved to be problematic. In early 2021, a database selling phone numbers pulled from Facebook was selling numbers for $20 per lookup. Similarly, security researchers found a network of deepfake bots on the platform that were generating images of people submitted by users to create non-consensual imagery, some of which involved children. "The inflation fire was already hot and now with war-driven inflation added to the mix, it will grow even hotter, setting off a scramble by the world’s central banks to pull back their stimulus earlier than expected," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, wrote in an email. "A spike in inflation rates has preceded economic recessions historically and this time prices have soared to levels that once again pose a threat to growth."
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