BREAKING: The odds of the US economy entering a recession in 2025 have fallen to a fresh low of just 19%.
Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points, per @Kalshi.
This comes after the preliminary reading of Q4 2024 GPD showed the US economy grew by 2.3%.
Even as interest rates remain elevated and inflation rebounds, the US economy is growing.
Have we avoided a recession?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points, per @Kalshi.
This comes after the preliminary reading of Q4 2024 GPD showed the US economy grew by 2.3%.
Even as interest rates remain elevated and inflation rebounds, the US economy is growing.
Have we avoided a recession?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Amazon is ramping up its advertising spending on X after pulling all ads from the platform in 2023, per WSJ.
Apple is also reportedly considering ramping up spending on X as well.
X is the future. https://t.co/fl0ppfSufG
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Apple is also reportedly considering ramping up spending on X as well.
X is the future. https://t.co/fl0ppfSufG
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The index put-to-call ratio has dropped to 0.76, the second-lowest level since March 2020.
Furthermore, the ratio’s 10-day moving average fell to 0.96, the lowest since August 2019.
Them overall total put-to-call ratio is also down to 0.72, the third-lowest since November 2021.
As a result, its 10-day moving average hit 0.78, a 39-month low.
Even as the market has seen an increase in volatility, demand for puts is historically low.
Bullish sentiment is through the roof.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Furthermore, the ratio’s 10-day moving average fell to 0.96, the lowest since August 2019.
Them overall total put-to-call ratio is also down to 0.72, the third-lowest since November 2021.
As a result, its 10-day moving average hit 0.78, a 39-month low.
Even as the market has seen an increase in volatility, demand for puts is historically low.
Bullish sentiment is through the roof.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Gold inventories on COMEX have surged to 30 million troy ounces, the highest since August 2022.
Inventories have almost doubled over the last several weeks, posting the largest inflows since 2020.
Meanwhile, gold prices are now up a whopping +40% over the last 12 months and in all time high territory.
Even as the US Dollar and Treasury Yields have risen sharply, gold continues to outperform.
Gold is making history.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Inventories have almost doubled over the last several weeks, posting the largest inflows since 2020.
Meanwhile, gold prices are now up a whopping +40% over the last 12 months and in all time high territory.
Even as the US Dollar and Treasury Yields have risen sharply, gold continues to outperform.
Gold is making history.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: The US is probing if DeepSeek illegally bought Nvidia chips through third parties in Singapore, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/JTsLAbjCoc
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: President Trump threatens 100% tariffs against ALL BRICS countries if they try to replace the US Dollar.
More than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. https://t.co/Bg5V4gyjbP
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
More than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. https://t.co/Bg5V4gyjbP
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: President Trump officially announces 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico.
These tariffs are set to go into effect on February 1st and "may or may not rise with time." https://t.co/OoPAXX7eKn
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
These tariffs are set to go into effect on February 1st and "may or may not rise with time." https://t.co/OoPAXX7eKn
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The stock market has unlocked a new level of euphoria:
Rising in a straight-line as President Trump threatens 100% tariffs in 30+ countries at once. https://t.co/3bXcfioUWx
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Rising in a straight-line as President Trump threatens 100% tariffs in 30+ countries at once. https://t.co/3bXcfioUWx
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
President Trump officially announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Markets have known this was coming for months.
Learn to identify these signs ahead of time and you’ll make a lot of money. https://t.co/9fhy6f9Ksa
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Markets have known this was coming for months.
Learn to identify these signs ahead of time and you’ll make a lot of money. https://t.co/9fhy6f9Ksa
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: December PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, RISES to 2.6%, in-line with expectations of 2.6%.
Core PCE inflation was 2.8%, in-line with expectations of 2.8%.
PCE inflation is now at its highest level since May 2024.
The "Fed pivot" has been paused.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Core PCE inflation was 2.8%, in-line with expectations of 2.8%.
PCE inflation is now at its highest level since May 2024.
The "Fed pivot" has been paused.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada is ready for "forceful and immediate" response to President Trump's tariffs.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, CEO Jensen Huang will meet with President Trump at the White House amid the DeepSeek situation, per FT. https://t.co/Dwfy24Axtm
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now trading back above 6100 as investors rotate back into large cap US technology stocks.
We are now less than 20 points away from new all time highs. https://t.co/W6wROaVqNz
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
We are now less than 20 points away from new all time highs. https://t.co/W6wROaVqNz
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
US executives are selling stock at a record pace:
The ratio of insider buyers to sellers dropped to 0.22, the lowest since 1988 when data began.
This is below previous lows of 0.24 and 0.25 seen in 2024 and 2021.
This month, only 98 firms have had at least one insider who bought shares, compared to 447 firms with at least one insider who sold.
Selling was particularly concentrated in Big Tech, which drove the market gains over the last 2 years.
Corporate insiders are taking profits.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The ratio of insider buyers to sellers dropped to 0.22, the lowest since 1988 when data began.
This is below previous lows of 0.24 and 0.25 seen in 2024 and 2021.
This month, only 98 firms have had at least one insider who bought shares, compared to 447 firms with at least one insider who sold.
Selling was particularly concentrated in Big Tech, which drove the market gains over the last 2 years.
Corporate insiders are taking profits.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The Nvidia plot thickens:
Take a look at Nvidia's sales to Singapore compared to when the US imposed restrictions on chip sales to China.
Exponential growth in sales to Singapore as soon as restrictions were imposed.
Interesting. https://t.co/gD4PZN7pZW
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Take a look at Nvidia's sales to Singapore compared to when the US imposed restrictions on chip sales to China.
Exponential growth in sales to Singapore as soon as restrictions were imposed.
Interesting. https://t.co/gD4PZN7pZW
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: President Trump is DELAYING beginning 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from February 1st to March 1st, per Trump Administration officials.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: The odds of President Trump imposing tariffs on any country before March have crashed to 32%.
The odds of tariffs being imposed just fell -55 percentage points in minutes, according to @Kalshi.
This comes as President Trump has delayed imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico to March 1st.
Earlier today, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is ready for a "forceful and immediate" response to Trump's tariffs.
Can the US avoid a trade war?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The odds of tariffs being imposed just fell -55 percentage points in minutes, according to @Kalshi.
This comes as President Trump has delayed imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico to March 1st.
Earlier today, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is ready for a "forceful and immediate" response to Trump's tariffs.
Can the US avoid a trade war?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: President Trump says the Reuters report stating that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed to March 1st is wrong.
Tariffs will still begin February 1st.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Tariffs will still begin February 1st.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This is what happens when Reuters reports that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are delayed due to "sources" and Trump says it's wrong.
All policy decisions should just be posted to X, directly by officials, with no middleman needed. https://t.co/FCZubg9ZXI
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
All policy decisions should just be posted to X, directly by officials, with no middleman needed. https://t.co/FCZubg9ZXI
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: President Trump says 10% tariffs on China will officially begin tomorrow.
This will be on top of already existing tariffs on China.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is meeting with Trump today.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This will be on top of already existing tariffs on China.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is meeting with Trump today.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)