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Forwarded from Ukraine War Analysis
The war began 3 years ago at this very hour. I think if you could go back and show people these maps of 2022 and 2025, no one would believe you. Not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the Americans, not anyone.

The famous line "three days to Kiev" is often falsely attributed to the Russians but was in fact spoken by an American general. No one thought Ukraine would survive the first few weeks. I don't think even Zelensky did, as he famously handed out weaponry to civilians for a last ditch defense of the city. But here we are three years later.

The one thing I can say is that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, the war is coming towards an end. Whether it will be a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire remains to be seen.

There is still a lot to be worked out in the negotiations and the position of the parties are too far apart for this to end quickly. In my opinion the fighting will continue until early 2026.



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The war began 3 years ago at this very hour. I think if you could go back and show people these maps of 2022 and 2025, no one would believe you. Not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the Americans, not anyone.

The famous line "three days to Kiev" is often falsely attributed to the Russians but was in fact spoken by an American general. No one thought Ukraine would survive the first few weeks. I don't think even Zelensky did, as he famously handed out weaponry to civilians for a last ditch defense of the city. But here we are three years later.

The one thing I can say is that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, the war is coming towards an end. Whether it will be a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire remains to be seen.

There is still a lot to be worked out in the negotiations and the position of the parties are too far apart for this to end quickly. In my opinion the fighting will continue until early 2026.

BY Full❄️Haus




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The account, "War on Fakes," was created on February 24, the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" and troops began invading Ukraine. The page is rife with disinformation, according to The Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, which studies digital extremism and published a report examining the channel. Under the Sebi Act, the regulator has the power to carry out search and seizure of books, registers, documents including electronics and digital devices from any person associated with the securities market. The company maintains that it cannot act against individual or group chats, which are “private amongst their participants,” but it will respond to requests in relation to sticker sets, channels and bots which are publicly available. During the invasion of Ukraine, Pavel Durov has wrestled with this issue a lot more prominently than he has before. Channels like Donbass Insider and Bellum Acta, as reported by Foreign Policy, started pumping out pro-Russian propaganda as the invasion began. So much so that the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council issued a statement labeling which accounts are Russian-backed. Ukrainian officials, in potential violation of the Geneva Convention, have shared imagery of dead and captured Russian soldiers on the platform. Overall, extreme levels of fear in the market seems to have morphed into something more resembling concern. For example, the Cboe Volatility Index fell from its 2022 peak of 36, which it hit Monday, to around 30 on Friday, a sign of easing tensions. Meanwhile, while the price of WTI crude oil slipped from Sunday’s multiyear high $130 of barrel to $109 a pop. Markets have been expecting heavy restrictions on Russian oil, some of which the U.S. has already imposed, and that would reduce the global supply and bring about even more burdensome inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 230 points, or 0.7%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively. All three indexes began the day with gains before selling off.
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