В целом, поддерживаем позицию Миши Бьюрри по вопросам «Sell» & «This time is different».
На картинке изображены ставки по федеральным фондам (белым, правая шкала) и обвал индекса SP500 (желтым) на 42% в 2001-2002 годах. Есть такое золотое правило — американские рынки всерьез не падают, пока ФРС не начинает снижать процентные ставки = признание реального сокращения экономики. Это как с рецессией, которую объявляют постфактум, эдак через 9-12 месяцев.
В целом, поддерживаем позицию Миши Бьюрри по вопросам «Sell» & «This time is different».
На картинке изображены ставки по федеральным фондам (белым, правая шкала) и обвал индекса SP500 (желтым) на 42% в 2001-2002 годах. Есть такое золотое правило — американские рынки всерьез не падают, пока ФРС не начинает снижать процентные ставки = признание реального сокращения экономики. Это как с рецессией, которую объявляют постфактум, эдак через 9-12 месяцев.
Since January 2022, the SC has received a total of 47 complaints and enquiries on illegal investment schemes promoted through Telegram. These fraudulent schemes offer non-existent investment opportunities, promising very attractive and risk-free returns within a short span of time. They commonly offer unrealistic returns of as high as 1,000% within 24 hours or even within a few hours. That hurt tech stocks. For the past few weeks, the 10-year yield has traded between 1.72% and 2%, as traders moved into the bond for safety when Russia headlines were ugly—and out of it when headlines improved. Now, the yield is touching its pandemic-era high. If the yield breaks above that level, that could signal that it’s on a sustainable path higher. Higher long-dated bond yields make future profits less valuable—and many tech companies are valued on the basis of profits forecast for many years in the future. In 2018, Russia banned Telegram although it reversed the prohibition two years later. And while money initially moved into stocks in the morning, capital moved out of safe-haven assets. The price of the 10-year Treasury note fell Friday, sending its yield up to 2% from a March closing low of 1.73%. "The inflation fire was already hot and now with war-driven inflation added to the mix, it will grow even hotter, setting off a scramble by the world’s central banks to pull back their stimulus earlier than expected," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, wrote in an email. "A spike in inflation rates has preceded economic recessions historically and this time prices have soared to levels that once again pose a threat to growth."
from id
