Iran's population growth rate is expected to reach zero by 2041. Births have fallen a massive 31% since 2016. Iranian authorities have responded to the crisis by offering marriage loans & housing deposits for families with 3 children, to little effect.

https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/

Still better than March 2024 so a year on year improvement.

Russia has a large comeback cohort born from 2008-2016 (with births btwn 1,713,947 & 1,942,683 every year of cohort). Its eldest turn 18 next year. While this group is clearly vital for Russia’s demographic recovery they are obviously viewed as a vital military asset as well.

Even if the war in Ukraine ends before 2026 Russia will undoubtedly want to maintain a large standing army as this is now central to its national interests. They are demographically able to do so until well into 2040s unlike much of Europe w/minuscule Zoomer & Alpha generations.

In comparison,Germany has a small Zoomer generation,as does Poland, Italy, Spain etc. Yet another example of how demographics directly impact national security. Putin invested heavily to create the 2008-2016 boom which led to TFR climbing as high as 1.77 for partly this reason.

Ukraine saw two good years towards the tail end of Gen Z(2009 & 2012)but a substantial part of this cohort had to flee abroad to escape fighting in 2022. If they don’t return(& gradually assimilate)the future of Ukraine is obviously very much at risk (culturally & otherwise).

The global demographic deceleration.  This one chart shows the dramatic fall across every single region of earth.  Even in Africa TFR is falling by ~1.0 every decade & looks set to be below replacement well before 2050, MENA by 2035. & things have only gotten worse since 2022…

Poorer countries will struggle the most with labor shortages as they will be losing people to both natural decline and emigration in the decades ahead.

Conflict to restore disputed boundaries coming into fashion again just as many countries are well into their demographic suicide arc. Lebanon well below replacement, Jordan rapidly getting there. Baltic States & Belarus have lowest low TFR. South Korea obviously worst situation.

Article critiquing main schools of thinking in Putin’s Russian demographic policy: ultraconservative (more radical ideas including a full abortion ban) & pragmatist (natalist benefits+payouts).

https://t.co/GNUepMAey9

Myanmar is being slowly destroyed town by town (now apparently becoming city by city). Emigration and refugee flows to neighboring countries & the destruction of many opportunities leave a bleak future. On top of all this the country has below replacement fertility.

https://www.group-telegram.com/AMK_Mapping/12377

Number of Venezuelans emigrants in recent years is almost unbelievable. ~8 million Venezuelans have fled. This is worse emigration than Syria or any other country for its size. Despite Maduro calling for Venezuelan women to have lots of kids they will never recover.

The Maduro regime has permanently destroyed the demographic future of the country. What has happened to Venezuela is worse than what befell Zimbabwe from 1987-2017 under Mugabe.

https://www.unhcr.org/us/emergencies/venezuela-situation

Egypt may hit replacement as early as 2026. Likely to be at 1.5 by 2035. This is the probable result of secular Egyptian fertility rates hitting East Asian levels (as Sisi wanted) while religious Egyptian fertility stays above 2.0.

Piece on how demographic decline may lead to an increase in warfare (motivated by the desire to compensate, directly or indirectly, for population loss).  Author postulates this may have been a driving factor behind Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://t.co/HCo1H3Cx9K

Have long argued that catastrophic demographics present a national security risk. As we return to an era of military might resolving territorial/boundary disputes this becomes even more so.

For example, during the 1990s Armenia-Azerbaijan War over Artsakh/Karabakh Azerbaijan had almost 3.5 million people and Azerbaijan was around double. By the 2020 War Armenia had fallen to ~3 million while Azerbaijan had risen to ~10 million.

Only 4.7% of births in South Korea were outside of marriage in 2023. The average age at first marriage for South Korean women is 31.6 as of 2024. South Korean women, on average, wait about 16 months to have their first child after marriage. TFR in South Korea is 0.75.

Greece increasingly certain to hit all time TFR low below 1.2 this year. Greece has seen less than 100,000 annual births since 2013. Births may go below 65,000 this year & annual births are very likely to stay sub 100,000 going forward even if TFR were to rebound significantly.

Almost twice as many South Korean men as women want a large family of 3 kids or more. 22% of men want 3 or more children while only 12% of women do. & far less than 12% actually end up having 3 kids.

Italy is basically the opposite of South Korea with far more women expressing 3+ children as the ideal (22%) than men (13%). Hungary is interesting in that both a relatively high number of men & women (28% & 23% respectively)have a 3+ child ideal yet Hungarian TFR is sub 1.4.

Bolivia (estimated at sub 2.09 TFR for 2024) & Paraguay (estimated at sub 2.0 TFR for 2024) have fallen below replacement level fertility.  Venezuela has also likely fallen below that level.  If confirmed this means all countries(bar Guyana)in South America now below replacement.

If Honduras falls below replacement in 2025 then all of Central America will be below replacement (yes even Nicaragua with sub 1.9, Guatemala with sub 2.09, & Belize with ~1.8). Truly remarkable how fast the demographic transition is occurring everywhere.