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It so happens that media in general, and financial, in particular, is biased toward negativity. Progress is slow, and efficiency gains are in the shadows, but alarmism attracts viewers and sells ads. It's easy to take a position on the market, bullish or bearish, and dig up supporting evidence. In the industry, it's called "talking your book". It's an intersection between wishful thinking and confirmation bias. Yet, every time one gets a conviction it's worth remembering that markets are what they are because of a wide range of opinions — often opposed ones.
The following are succinct points for each side.

Bearish:
-  Stubborn inflation. High and rising rates will eventually break something
- Monetary tightening by the FED.
- Elevated valuations. P/E, CAPE, or anything else.
- Extreme concentration of leadership in the market.
- High and rising public debt. Interest payments exceeded the DOD budget
- Strong dollar (DXY).
- Insurance liabilities for LA fires.
- Office real estate woes on balance sheets of regional banks.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary spending for new buyers by a sizeable amount. Big increases in home insurance.
- Risk of sizeable deportations.
- David Rosenberg.

Bullish:
- American exceptionalism. A strong economy, low unemployment, and healthy job growth.
- Salary increases outpace inflation. Even more so for skilled workers at the top. 
- High Normal interest rates.
- Continuation of high CAPEX spending, AI investments, factories, and data center construction
- $2T of deficit spending.
- Expected deregulation from the new administration.
- Onshoring.
- 20% of mortgages are below 3%. 55% of mortgages are below 4%. 40% of homes carry no mortgage.
- Population growth
- Jim Bianco (neutral)

Pick your poison.

#finance
January 2025



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It so happens that media in general, and financial, in particular, is biased toward negativity. Progress is slow, and efficiency gains are in the shadows, but alarmism attracts viewers and sells ads. It's easy to take a position on the market, bullish or bearish, and dig up supporting evidence. In the industry, it's called "talking your book". It's an intersection between wishful thinking and confirmation bias. Yet, every time one gets a conviction it's worth remembering that markets are what they are because of a wide range of opinions — often opposed ones.
The following are succinct points for each side.

Bearish:
-  Stubborn inflation. High and rising rates will eventually break something
- Monetary tightening by the FED.
- Elevated valuations. P/E, CAPE, or anything else.
- Extreme concentration of leadership in the market.
- High and rising public debt. Interest payments exceeded the DOD budget
- Strong dollar (DXY).
- Insurance liabilities for LA fires.
- Office real estate woes on balance sheets of regional banks.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary spending for new buyers by a sizeable amount. Big increases in home insurance.
- Risk of sizeable deportations.
- David Rosenberg.

Bullish:
- American exceptionalism. A strong economy, low unemployment, and healthy job growth.
- Salary increases outpace inflation. Even more so for skilled workers at the top. 
- High Normal interest rates.
- Continuation of high CAPEX spending, AI investments, factories, and data center construction
- $2T of deficit spending.
- Expected deregulation from the new administration.
- Onshoring.
- 20% of mortgages are below 3%. 55% of mortgages are below 4%. 40% of homes carry no mortgage.
- Population growth
- Jim Bianco (neutral)

Pick your poison.

#finance
January 2025

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The message was not authentic, with the real Zelenskiy soon denying the claim on his official Telegram channel, but the incident highlighted a major problem: disinformation quickly spreads unchecked on the encrypted app. "Your messages about the movement of the enemy through the official chatbot … bring new trophies every day," the government agency tweeted. The news also helped traders look past another report showing decades-high inflation and shake off some of the volatility from recent sessions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' February Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week showed another surge in prices even before Russia escalated its attacks in Ukraine. The headline CPI — soaring 7.9% over last year — underscored the sticky inflationary pressures reverberating across the U.S. economy, with everything from groceries to rents and airline fares getting more expensive for everyday consumers. It is unclear who runs the account, although Russia's official Ministry of Foreign Affairs Twitter account promoted the Telegram channel on Saturday and claimed it was operated by "a group of experts & journalists." The regulator said it has been undertaking several campaigns to educate the investors to be vigilant while taking investment decisions based on stock tips.
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