The PHIA Probability Yardstick Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data. A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability. This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to occur, then y might happen’). The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range. source مرتبط با: www.group-telegram.com/nouritazeh/5038
The PHIA Probability Yardstick Most intelligence judgements have some degree of uncertainty associated with them. The intelligence assessment community use terms such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘probable’ to convey this. These terms are used instead of numerical probabilities e.g. 55% to avoid interpretation of judgements as being overly precise, as most intelligence judgements are not based on quantitative data. A Yardstick establishes what these terms approximately correspond to in numerical probability. This ensures that readers understand a judgement as the analyst intends. The rigourous use of a Yardstick also ensures that analysts themselves make clear judgements and avoid the inappropriate use of terms that imply a judgement without being clear what it is (e.g. ‘if x were to occur, then y might happen’). The Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment Probability Yardstick splits the probability scale into seven ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range. source مرتبط با: www.group-telegram.com/nouritazeh/5038
"He has kind of an old-school cyber-libertarian world view where technology is there to set you free," Maréchal said. Crude oil prices edged higher after tumbling on Thursday, when U.S. West Texas intermediate slid back below $110 per barrel after topping as much as $130 a barrel in recent sessions. Still, gas prices at the pump rose to fresh highs. Telegram was co-founded by Pavel and Nikolai Durov, the brothers who had previously created VKontakte. VK is Russia’s equivalent of Facebook, a social network used for public and private messaging, audio and video sharing as well as online gaming. In January, SimpleWeb reported that VK was Russia’s fourth most-visited website, after Yandex, YouTube and Google’s Russian-language homepage. In 2016, Forbes’ Michael Solomon described Pavel Durov (pictured, below) as the “Mark Zuckerberg of Russia.” DFR Lab sent the image through Microsoft Azure's Face Verification program and found that it was "highly unlikely" that the person in the second photo was the same as the first woman. The fact-checker Logically AI also found the claim to be false. The woman, Olena Kurilo, was also captured in a video after the airstrike and shown to have the injuries.
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