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Goldman Sachs 2023 Outlook: Главный вопрос - можно ли инфляционный перегрев остановить без сваливания в рецессию? Мы считаем, unlike to consensus, что да, и что soft landing получится. Повышение ставок должно замедлить экон. рост, безработица вырастет, и, наконец, замедлится рост зарплат -> инфляция снизится. В 2023 будет не 0% (консенсус рынка) рост ВВП США, а 1% (наши расчеты), тк уже 1.5 года эффект fiscal policy, ее пик уже пройден. В конце 2023 SP500 будет 4000 (сейчас 3800, в сент 2021 было 4500).

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/2023-outlooks/

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Create: 2022-12-26
Last Update: 2025-02-25 09:06:36

Goldman Sachs 2023 Outlook: Главный вопрос - можно ли инфляционный перегрев остановить без сваливания в рецессию? Мы считаем, unlike to consensus, что да, и что soft landing получится. Повышение ставок должно замедлить экон. рост, безработица вырастет, и, наконец, замедлится рост зарплат -> инфляция снизится. В 2023 будет не 0% (консенсус рынка) рост ВВП США, а 1% (наши расчеты), тк уже 1.5 года эффект fiscal policy, ее пик уже пройден. В конце 2023 SP500 будет 4000 (сейчас 3800, в сент 2021 было 4500).

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/2023-outlooks/

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