Ask anyone what a stock is expected to do following such a miss and 9 out of 10 will say to tumble. And yet, price action is neutral to up post earnings.
A lonely voice will say - it depends. Indeed. Markets trade on expectations.
#twotypesofpeople #finance
A lonely voice will say - it depends. Indeed. Markets trade on expectations.
#twotypesofpeople #finance
Random Thoughts
Дня не проходит чтоб магическое слово дедолларизация (de-dollarization) не всплыло в ленте новостей. Довольно популярная нынче тема. Даже статья на вики имеется. Да что там, этой теме уже более 50ти лет. Она периодически поднимается из недр очередной волной…
Trump made an error in judgment by publicly opposing and threatening the creation of the BRICS common currency. A clever strategy would be to encourage the formation of this chimera and watch it fail. If that's twisted then ignoring these political whims entirely would be a pragmatic course of action. It would've been a dead-on-arrival anyway. Nothing strengthens the USD more than the collapse of a competing currency regime.
Instead, our easily triggered champion of US nationalism took the bait and provided credibility to the idea. Why would Trump fiercely oppose it had it not been a serious threat, a BRICS sympathizer would reason. Furthermore, this act indirectly supports incumbent politicians whose currency plans have vaporized. They could now rally local support in case the power grip will loosen. Nothing unites people more behind the ruling elites than external threats.
Escalatory nationalism begets more nationalism elsewhere. I hope these lessons were learned in the 20th century.
#AmericanImperialism
Instead, our easily triggered champion of US nationalism took the bait and provided credibility to the idea. Why would Trump fiercely oppose it had it not been a serious threat, a BRICS sympathizer would reason. Furthermore, this act indirectly supports incumbent politicians whose currency plans have vaporized. They could now rally local support in case the power grip will loosen. Nothing unites people more behind the ruling elites than external threats.
Escalatory nationalism begets more nationalism elsewhere. I hope these lessons were learned in the 20th century.
#AmericanImperialism
В августе 2024 я обращал внимание на статью, отображающую серьёзные различия между недооценкой американцами социально-экономических явлений и реальным положением вещей. Так, например, респонденты оценили кол-во трансгендеров в обществе в 21%, против 1% в реальности. 27% - оценка кол-ва мусульман, против 1% в реальности.
После победы Трампа нужно признать, что его команда мастерски сыграла на подобных искажениях в головах обывателей. Легко манипулировать человеком, не владеющим фактами и питающимся личными иллюзиями.
В этом свете очень показательна данная картинка, отражающая идеальное, оценочное и реальное распределение богатств в США.
#factoftheday
После победы Трампа нужно признать, что его команда мастерски сыграла на подобных искажениях в головах обывателей. Легко манипулировать человеком, не владеющим фактами и питающимся личными иллюзиями.
В этом свете очень показательна данная картинка, отражающая идеальное, оценочное и реальное распределение богатств в США.
#factoftheday
Random Thoughts
Не прошло и трех дней. Система сдержек и противовесом в действии. Выставил себя клоуном. #politics
Amateurs discuss Trump's Executive Orders. Pros await judges' decisions. How many of those initiatives will die due to lack of funding is a bonus question.
#politics #twotypesofpeople
#politics #twotypesofpeople
Yahoo News
Trump's record number of executive orders are testing the limits of presidential power
Before his inauguration, President Donald Trump vowed to sign 100 executive orders on his first day in office. While executive orders have sometimes, controversially, been used as a last resort after a president is unable to garner legislative support to…
In a recent interview, Mark Rubio eloquently signaled a pivot from an ideological vector in geopolitics towards realpolitik. I'm consciously optimistic, for I never respected neoliberal motifs for international strategy.
#politics #AmericanDynamism
#politics #AmericanDynamism
How about this metric? If most of a household's wealth is linked to its primary residence, namely housing equity, then it's middle class or lower. Otherwise, it's upper-middle class and beyond.
#twotypesofpeople #finance
#twotypesofpeople #finance
ВВП США на душу населения $80K. Мексики $11K. Данные за 2023 год.
С 1890 года реальный рост американской экономики 2% годовых в среднем. Если бы темпы роста были на 1% в год меньше (да это сокращение на 50%), то сегодня американский ВВП на душу населения находился бы на мексиканском уровне - $13.6K. Так выглядит power of compounding в действии.
Данная методология полезна для анализа эффективности санкций. Санкции – тормоз экономического развития.
#factoftheday #economics
С 1890 года реальный рост американской экономики 2% годовых в среднем. Если бы темпы роста были на 1% в год меньше (да это сокращение на 50%), то сегодня американский ВВП на душу населения находился бы на мексиканском уровне - $13.6K. Так выглядит power of compounding в действии.
Данная методология полезна для анализа эффективности санкций. Санкции – тормоз экономического развития.
#factoftheday #economics
How do I know a good deal? When both sides loudly complain about it. The lack of complaints from one side suggests the opponents are being had.
#politics #economics
#politics #economics
According to one famous political leader, "tariff" is the most beautiful word in a dictionary. In this light, some historical parallels are worth remembering.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress in June 1930 and signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. On September 18, 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria and a bloody war followed. This was a direct consequence of said legislation, albeit an unintended one. Reciprocal tariffs from the rest of the world hit US exporters really hard too. Because the U.S. was a large net exporter it only worsened the already deteriorating economic situation. Back then the driving force behind tariffs were farmers, who had an overly naïve understanding of the economy, yet were extremely vocal constituents. It was MAGA before the term's existence.
To be fair, tariffs are a useful tool to hedge from beggar thy neighbor industrial, and by extension trade policies, of other countries. Just don't pretend they'll be cost-free.
U - Unintended consequences.
#economics
February 2025
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress in June 1930 and signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. On September 18, 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria and a bloody war followed. This was a direct consequence of said legislation, albeit an unintended one. Reciprocal tariffs from the rest of the world hit US exporters really hard too. Because the U.S. was a large net exporter it only worsened the already deteriorating economic situation. Back then the driving force behind tariffs were farmers, who had an overly naïve understanding of the economy, yet were extremely vocal constituents. It was MAGA before the term's existence.
To be fair, tariffs are a useful tool to hedge from beggar thy neighbor industrial, and by extension trade policies, of other countries. Just don't pretend they'll be cost-free.
U - Unintended consequences.
#economics
February 2025