There is an old adage in markets: "Bond yields will rise until something breaks". And rise they did. Given inflation's stubbornness, especially in services, talk of tariffs, onshoring, and other factors, a 5 handle on 10-year treasuries is expected sometime this year. A point I voiced earlier. That is if an exogenous shock won't derail the economy before. One such possibility, albeit minuscule, could materialize from the current fires in LA. They'll test the abilities of the insurance industry. Currently, the situation is too fluid, and markets are closed due to the national mourning of Jimmy Carter.
So grab the popcorn, the movie is called American Exceptionalism vs Bond Vigilantes!
There is an old adage in markets: "Bond yields will rise until something breaks". And rise they did. Given inflation's stubbornness, especially in services, talk of tariffs, onshoring, and other factors, a 5 handle on 10-year treasuries is expected sometime this year. A point I voiced earlier. That is if an exogenous shock won't derail the economy before. One such possibility, albeit minuscule, could materialize from the current fires in LA. They'll test the abilities of the insurance industry. Currently, the situation is too fluid, and markets are closed due to the national mourning of Jimmy Carter.
So grab the popcorn, the movie is called American Exceptionalism vs Bond Vigilantes!
#finance #AmericanDynamism
BY Random Thoughts
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A Russian Telegram channel with over 700,000 followers is spreading disinformation about Russia's invasion of Ukraine under the guise of providing "objective information" and fact-checking fake news. Its influence extends beyond the platform, with major Russian publications, government officials, and journalists citing the page's posts. Telegram has become more interventionist over time, and has steadily increased its efforts to shut down these accounts. But this has also meant that the company has also engaged with lawmakers more generally, although it maintains that it doesn’t do so willingly. For instance, in September 2021, Telegram reportedly blocked a chat bot in support of (Putin critic) Alexei Navalny during Russia’s most recent parliamentary elections. Pavel Durov was quoted at the time saying that the company was obliged to follow a “legitimate” law of the land. He added that as Apple and Google both follow the law, to violate it would give both platforms a reason to boot the messenger from its stores. This ability to mix the public and the private, as well as the ability to use bots to engage with users has proved to be problematic. In early 2021, a database selling phone numbers pulled from Facebook was selling numbers for $20 per lookup. Similarly, security researchers found a network of deepfake bots on the platform that were generating images of people submitted by users to create non-consensual imagery, some of which involved children. The last couple days have exemplified that uncertainty. On Thursday, news emerged that talks in Turkey between the Russia and Ukraine yielded no positive result. But on Friday, Reuters reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin said there had been some “positive shifts” in talks between the two sides. This provided opportunity to their linked entities to offload their shares at higher prices and make significant profits at the cost of unsuspecting retail investors.
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