По итогам последних двух недель нужно признать, что многие перепутали неприменение силы, пока только дипломатической, с её отсутствием. Видимо европейским лидерам следует повторить уроки Суэцкого кризиса 1956 года. Биби тоже в трудном положении. Придётся понижать ястребиный накал. Про Зеленского и говорить нечего. Парень явно забыл с чьих рук кормился. Начал сильно нервничать.
#AmericanImperialism
February 2025
#AmericanImperialism
February 2025
В мире 3,400-3,600 коммерческих судов, ходящих под Китайским флагом и 180-200 под Американским. Данные за 2024 год.
#factoftheday
#factoftheday
Random Thoughts
В мире 3,400-3,600 коммерческих судов, ходящих под Китайским флагом и 180-200 под Американским. Данные за 2024 год. #factoftheday
Perhaps pendulum has reached one extreme and will start to swing back. This proposal has a bipartisan support, or so I hear, and should sail through both chambers. Time will tell if this initiative was a watershed moment for a declined US maritime industry.
#AmericanDynamism
#AmericanDynamism
Senator Mark Kelly
Sen. Kelly, Sen. Young, Rep. Garamendi, Rep. Kelly Introduce SHIPS for America Act to Revitalize US Shipbuilding and Commercial…
The bipartisan, bicameral bill will fuel U.S. economy, strengthen national security by responding to China’s threat over the oceans Currently, the number of U.S.-flagged vessels in international commerce is 80; China has 5,500 Today, Senator Mark Kelly (D…
The actions of DOGE appear vulgar and destructive to many observers. Let's be frank they are. Young and ambitious libertarians driven by ideals of cut through efficiency slashing funding and people without proper due diligence. In some instances, realizing ginormous mistakes and attempting to rehire the same people, only to learn there is no easy way to broadcast the message. Rampant overreporting of achieved savings is a sad reality. It's a time-honored tradition to overemphasize the achievements of a white knight.
But....
If one believes there is an existential problem one doesn't have the luxury of going slow. We tried it and it mostly failed. In 1993 Clinton attempted the National Performance Review (NPR) / "Reinventing Government". Then under George W. Bush in 2001 the President's Management Agenda (PMA), and in 2002 the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART). These attempts couldn't overcome the resistance of vested interests and went nowhere.
Just to remind proponents of the status quo. We've recently crossed the Rubicon by spending more to service our national debt than on our military. Historian Niall Ferguson recently claimed similar dynamic was a cause for empires to fall. The share of federal government spending compared to the GDP is approximately 23% as of 2024. The post-WWII historical average has been around 20% of GDP. This number is somewhat skewed higher by the profligacies of the Great Recession and COVID-19.
I do feel for dismissed government workers, but those of us in the private sector have always operated under the same possibilities. Lavish severance packages are typically reserved for the top brass of elite financial firms. When a crisis manager takes the helm of a business drastic measures ensue. Sink or swim realities dictate that. Moaning and squeaking always follow. Any resolution will make someone unhappy.
The federal government, which provides services to the general public is not a business driven by profits and efficiency goals alone. However, it cannot grow unchecked either. The Achilles heel of a democracy is that it is almost impossible to eradicate entrenched interests from within, and so the waste and cronyism always grow.
When a firefighter is tasked with putting off a fire he'll break windows, doors, and walls. As concerned as I am with DOGE's tactics I'm willing to extend a firehose to them. Hopefully, the results will be net positive. Time will tell.
#AmericanDynamism
February 2025
But....
If one believes there is an existential problem one doesn't have the luxury of going slow. We tried it and it mostly failed. In 1993 Clinton attempted the National Performance Review (NPR) / "Reinventing Government". Then under George W. Bush in 2001 the President's Management Agenda (PMA), and in 2002 the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART). These attempts couldn't overcome the resistance of vested interests and went nowhere.
Just to remind proponents of the status quo. We've recently crossed the Rubicon by spending more to service our national debt than on our military. Historian Niall Ferguson recently claimed similar dynamic was a cause for empires to fall. The share of federal government spending compared to the GDP is approximately 23% as of 2024. The post-WWII historical average has been around 20% of GDP. This number is somewhat skewed higher by the profligacies of the Great Recession and COVID-19.
I do feel for dismissed government workers, but those of us in the private sector have always operated under the same possibilities. Lavish severance packages are typically reserved for the top brass of elite financial firms. When a crisis manager takes the helm of a business drastic measures ensue. Sink or swim realities dictate that. Moaning and squeaking always follow. Any resolution will make someone unhappy.
The federal government, which provides services to the general public is not a business driven by profits and efficiency goals alone. However, it cannot grow unchecked either. The Achilles heel of a democracy is that it is almost impossible to eradicate entrenched interests from within, and so the waste and cronyism always grow.
When a firefighter is tasked with putting off a fire he'll break windows, doors, and walls. As concerned as I am with DOGE's tactics I'm willing to extend a firehose to them. Hopefully, the results will be net positive. Time will tell.
#AmericanDynamism
February 2025
A very dense history of programming languages and what to expect.
1. Binary code (1940s-1950s). Instructions were written directly in binary (0s and 1s). Tedious and highly error-prone.
2. Machine code (late 1940s-1950s). Slight improvement to octal or hexadecimal representations.
3. Assembly language (1950s). A major improvement with human-readable mnemonics and symbolic names for memory locations and instructions.
4. High-level languages (late 1950s onward): FORTRAN, COBOL, C, Java, Lisp, and everything we use today.
The first three categories were hardware-dependent. Programmers had to be aware of the specifications of the hardware they were writing code for, but this need mostly disappeared with high-level languages.
The jump to high-level languages was met with performance-related criticism from incumbents. Early compilers were no match for seasoned assembly programmers. But problems were getting bigger and compilers were getting better. Eventually, the domain for assembly languages became a tine one. My wonderful AI helper suggests it's less than 1% today.
Some say we're in similar dynamics today. AI-written code is all the rage lately. This implies that the next programming language will be English. If history is any guide, tools like Copilot will evolve and improve. Potentially to a point where knowledge of the underlying computer science concepts will become irrelevant.
There is fear among programmers. Their skills will be obsolete. I wouldn't be so pessimistic. The responsibilities will probably shift, but with ever-increasing problem space, better tools are naturally required, while somebody is going to apply and operate them.
#history #tech
February 2025
1. Binary code (1940s-1950s). Instructions were written directly in binary (0s and 1s). Tedious and highly error-prone.
2. Machine code (late 1940s-1950s). Slight improvement to octal or hexadecimal representations.
3. Assembly language (1950s). A major improvement with human-readable mnemonics and symbolic names for memory locations and instructions.
4. High-level languages (late 1950s onward): FORTRAN, COBOL, C, Java, Lisp, and everything we use today.
The first three categories were hardware-dependent. Programmers had to be aware of the specifications of the hardware they were writing code for, but this need mostly disappeared with high-level languages.
The jump to high-level languages was met with performance-related criticism from incumbents. Early compilers were no match for seasoned assembly programmers. But problems were getting bigger and compilers were getting better. Eventually, the domain for assembly languages became a tine one. My wonderful AI helper suggests it's less than 1% today.
Some say we're in similar dynamics today. AI-written code is all the rage lately. This implies that the next programming language will be English. If history is any guide, tools like Copilot will evolve and improve. Potentially to a point where knowledge of the underlying computer science concepts will become irrelevant.
There is fear among programmers. Their skills will be obsolete. I wouldn't be so pessimistic. The responsibilities will probably shift, but with ever-increasing problem space, better tools are naturally required, while somebody is going to apply and operate them.
#history #tech
February 2025
Random Thoughts
Этот эпизод отлично продемонстрировал контраст двух менталитетов. Идеалистического и прагматического. Желающие сами могут наложить на удобные этнические стереотипы.
Идеалист, в борьбе за справедливость и правоту каких результатов добился? Срыва сделки, продолжения войны, жертв и горя.
Прагматик, упираясь на принципы realpolitik, нацелен на результат. Кто там прав или виноват, и в каких пропорциях, сейчас уже не важно. Главная цель – остановить войну.
И ещё, люди, выступающие с позиций демонизации одной из сторон как аргумента против переговоров, забывают два важных исторических прецедента. Рузвельт заключил полноценный альянс со Сталиным, а Никсон пошёл на встречу Мао. Эти два товарища уложили в землю десятки миллионов своих сограждан. Тем не менее, логика событий диктовала пренебрежение моральными аспектами в угоду бОльших целей.
Позволяешь себе оскорбления в адрес врага – подразумеваешь продолжение войны. Хочешь мира – спрячь гордыню и договаривайся отталкиваясь от реальности, а не от своих хотелок.
#politics
Идеалист, в борьбе за справедливость и правоту каких результатов добился? Срыва сделки, продолжения войны, жертв и горя.
Прагматик, упираясь на принципы realpolitik, нацелен на результат. Кто там прав или виноват, и в каких пропорциях, сейчас уже не важно. Главная цель – остановить войну.
И ещё, люди, выступающие с позиций демонизации одной из сторон как аргумента против переговоров, забывают два важных исторических прецедента. Рузвельт заключил полноценный альянс со Сталиным, а Никсон пошёл на встречу Мао. Эти два товарища уложили в землю десятки миллионов своих сограждан. Тем не менее, логика событий диктовала пренебрежение моральными аспектами в угоду бОльших целей.
Позволяешь себе оскорбления в адрес врага – подразумеваешь продолжение войны. Хочешь мира – спрячь гордыню и договаривайся отталкиваясь от реальности, а не от своих хотелок.
#politics
Кажется Британия и Франция повторят динамику 1956 года. Нет, не в военном смысле, а в дипломатическом.
#politics
#politics
Last night I watched the entire State of the Union speech for the first time. What can I say, I'm getting older. The absence of a historical perspective makes it impossible to perform a solid comparison. That said, a few things stood out.
- Vocabulary. It was wider and more natural than the usual spiel in front of cameras. Perhaps members of Congress are held in higher regard than the electorate.
- An excessive number of individuals and their personal stories for all sorts of praises.
- Rebellious gentleman from TX who was asked to leave the chamber.
As the speech progressed though, the number of self-contradictions exceeded my ability to keep count. Below are a few that I had the opportunity to note. Paraphrasing here.
- Make America affordable again while erecting tariffs.
- End unelected bureaucrats running our country while praising Elon.
- Permanent lower taxes (earlier tax cuts are soon to expire) and a balanced federal budget.- Drill baby drill, to get cheaper oil, yet the price has been range bound at $65-80 for more than two years and currently at the lower end of $66. The break-even price is said to be around $55.
- Announcement of TSMC pledging another sizeable investment to build a fab in AZ while trashing the CHIPS act. Yet, acknowledging at the same time that it's not the first investment the said company has made recently, thus implying it was done under the aforementioned legislation, which it was.
- Boasting about most deportations of illegals. A quick fact-checking suggests that during the first month, the current administration deported fewer people than Biden's last year's average.
- Claims of geriatric people receiving social security benefits. This has been refuted here. Some young DOGE fellows need to learn a bit of COBOL and SQL it appears.
- Reclaiming of sovereignty. From whom? I don't recall the US was under the rule of another state. A change in political leadership isn't that.
P - populism.
#politics
March 2025
- Vocabulary. It was wider and more natural than the usual spiel in front of cameras. Perhaps members of Congress are held in higher regard than the electorate.
- An excessive number of individuals and their personal stories for all sorts of praises.
- Rebellious gentleman from TX who was asked to leave the chamber.
As the speech progressed though, the number of self-contradictions exceeded my ability to keep count. Below are a few that I had the opportunity to note. Paraphrasing here.
- Make America affordable again while erecting tariffs.
- End unelected bureaucrats running our country while praising Elon.
- Permanent lower taxes (earlier tax cuts are soon to expire) and a balanced federal budget.- Drill baby drill, to get cheaper oil, yet the price has been range bound at $65-80 for more than two years and currently at the lower end of $66. The break-even price is said to be around $55.
- Announcement of TSMC pledging another sizeable investment to build a fab in AZ while trashing the CHIPS act. Yet, acknowledging at the same time that it's not the first investment the said company has made recently, thus implying it was done under the aforementioned legislation, which it was.
- Boasting about most deportations of illegals. A quick fact-checking suggests that during the first month, the current administration deported fewer people than Biden's last year's average.
- Claims of geriatric people receiving social security benefits. This has been refuted here. Some young DOGE fellows need to learn a bit of COBOL and SQL it appears.
- Reclaiming of sovereignty. From whom? I don't recall the US was under the rule of another state. A change in political leadership isn't that.
P - populism.
#politics
March 2025