The tragedy of American geopolitics is the following hypocrisy. Internally, the U.S. welcomes and cherishes cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity. We embrace a free market of ideas and subjective pursuit of happiness. Yet globally, we push for one type of statehood and one type only - a liberal democracy. Any other form of government is not to be tolerated. Perhaps this thinking arose from the experience of the American Century, the winning of the Cold War, the unipolar moment, and intellectual works such as Fukuyama's book "The End of History and the Last Man". The why doesn't matter. Not everyone shares or accepts this form of political organization. The results are more blood and misery around the world. In the long term, this will only erode our moral position and increase adverse consequences.
In the short term, however, life is good. As a former colleague of mine summarized: "I don't like the American foreign policy, hence I live within".
#AmericanImperialism
In the short term, however, life is good. As a former colleague of mine summarized: "I don't like the American foreign policy, hence I live within".
#AmericanImperialism
How a single invention changed the course of history.
Until recently I struggled to understand how the Dutch Republic, a tiny newly established state on the European periphery, could dethrone the Portuguese Empire in a spice trade. It's not exactly that Iberian sailors were schoolboys. On the contrary, they were instrumental in imposing their power on locals of the Indian subcontinent and islands of the Far East. They epitomized the state of the art in shipbuilding and navigational know-how of the era. And yet, the Dutch prevailed. But a little historical context first.
- On May 4th, 1493, Pope Alexander VI issued a bull "Inter caetera" to divide the newly discovered world between Spanish and Portuguese monarchies.
- In 1494 the Treaty of Tordesillas was negotiated to better define boundaries.
- Portugal discovered the Spice Islands (modern Indonesia) in 1512.
- 1568 –1648, Eighty Years' War. Dutch ultimately succeeded in gaining independence from Habsrubgs.
- In 1580 the Iberian Union was formed. A previously neutral Portuguese Empire entered the ongoing conflict with the Dutch, on the side of Spain. Hostilities expanded to the high seas.
- 1595 – 1597, the First Dutch Expedition to the East Indies. It had limited success, however, it demonstrated the viability of the enterprise and opened the door for future expeditions.
- In 1602 The Dutch East India Company (VOC) was formed. It is one of the first joint-stock companies in the world and a significant financial innovation by itself. The opportunity to invest was open to all members of society.
- 1628, The Portuguese established the Portuguese East India Company, a joint-stock company with the king as the majority shareholder. Portuguese dominated east trade in this period.
A stage was set in the late 16th century, and early 17th century, for a trade and military competition between the Dutch and the Portuguese over the spice trade. It later developed into a conflict known as the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663. Not only did the Dutch come up on top, but they also managed to defeat England in the Second Anglo-Dutch War (England was victorious in the first one). Brits were getting upset with the Dutch monopolizing the trade. Not to mention several wars against a little catholic fellow known as Louis XIV of France. The Dutch Republic entered its Golden Age.
Arguably, a single invention, by a modest farmer catapulted the Dutch to its zenith. In 1594, Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest developed a machine to harness wind power to saw wood. He built his first sawmill. The critical component of his design was a crankshaft, which converted circular motion into back-and-forward motion powering the saw. He made additional improvements in the subsequent years and obtained a few patents. Initially, local carpenters opposed the invention, but very quickly the whole society realized the benefits, for plenty of ordinary citizens were VOC investors. Productivity soared by a factor of 30 (3,000%). The Dutch started to crank out ships at unrivaled speeds and quantities.
By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic became the world's foremost naval power. The Spanish fleet was destroyed in 1607 at the Battle of Gibraltar. By 1650, the Netherlands had about 16,000 merchant ships. In 1667, in Raid on the Medway, the Dutch delivered a crushing naval defeat to England. The next year, William III aka William of Orange, toppled James II and put himself on the British throne, to end the beef with England.
This fascinating story underscores the importance of technological innovation and its application to the balance of power. This is especially breathtaking if one considers the population of competing powers in the 17th century.
Iberian Union and possessions ~ 28.7M
England and possessions ~ 5.6M
Kingdom of France ~18-20M
Dutch Republic ~1.5M
The U.S. can trace its innovative dynamism to the Dutch lineage.
#history
Until recently I struggled to understand how the Dutch Republic, a tiny newly established state on the European periphery, could dethrone the Portuguese Empire in a spice trade. It's not exactly that Iberian sailors were schoolboys. On the contrary, they were instrumental in imposing their power on locals of the Indian subcontinent and islands of the Far East. They epitomized the state of the art in shipbuilding and navigational know-how of the era. And yet, the Dutch prevailed. But a little historical context first.
- On May 4th, 1493, Pope Alexander VI issued a bull "Inter caetera" to divide the newly discovered world between Spanish and Portuguese monarchies.
- In 1494 the Treaty of Tordesillas was negotiated to better define boundaries.
- Portugal discovered the Spice Islands (modern Indonesia) in 1512.
- 1568 –1648, Eighty Years' War. Dutch ultimately succeeded in gaining independence from Habsrubgs.
- In 1580 the Iberian Union was formed. A previously neutral Portuguese Empire entered the ongoing conflict with the Dutch, on the side of Spain. Hostilities expanded to the high seas.
- 1595 – 1597, the First Dutch Expedition to the East Indies. It had limited success, however, it demonstrated the viability of the enterprise and opened the door for future expeditions.
- In 1602 The Dutch East India Company (VOC) was formed. It is one of the first joint-stock companies in the world and a significant financial innovation by itself. The opportunity to invest was open to all members of society.
- 1628, The Portuguese established the Portuguese East India Company, a joint-stock company with the king as the majority shareholder. Portuguese dominated east trade in this period.
A stage was set in the late 16th century, and early 17th century, for a trade and military competition between the Dutch and the Portuguese over the spice trade. It later developed into a conflict known as the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663. Not only did the Dutch come up on top, but they also managed to defeat England in the Second Anglo-Dutch War (England was victorious in the first one). Brits were getting upset with the Dutch monopolizing the trade. Not to mention several wars against a little catholic fellow known as Louis XIV of France. The Dutch Republic entered its Golden Age.
Arguably, a single invention, by a modest farmer catapulted the Dutch to its zenith. In 1594, Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest developed a machine to harness wind power to saw wood. He built his first sawmill. The critical component of his design was a crankshaft, which converted circular motion into back-and-forward motion powering the saw. He made additional improvements in the subsequent years and obtained a few patents. Initially, local carpenters opposed the invention, but very quickly the whole society realized the benefits, for plenty of ordinary citizens were VOC investors. Productivity soared by a factor of 30 (3,000%). The Dutch started to crank out ships at unrivaled speeds and quantities.
By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic became the world's foremost naval power. The Spanish fleet was destroyed in 1607 at the Battle of Gibraltar. By 1650, the Netherlands had about 16,000 merchant ships. In 1667, in Raid on the Medway, the Dutch delivered a crushing naval defeat to England. The next year, William III aka William of Orange, toppled James II and put himself on the British throne, to end the beef with England.
This fascinating story underscores the importance of technological innovation and its application to the balance of power. This is especially breathtaking if one considers the population of competing powers in the 17th century.
Iberian Union and possessions ~ 28.7M
England and possessions ~ 5.6M
Kingdom of France ~18-20M
Dutch Republic ~1.5M
The U.S. can trace its innovative dynamism to the Dutch lineage.
#history
How did your real estate perform?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-the-last-two-decades/
#finance #AmericanDynamism
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-the-last-two-decades/
#finance #AmericanDynamism
Visual Capitalist
Ranked: The Top Performing S&P 500 Stocks in the Last Two Decades
This infographic ranks the top performing S&P 500 stocks over four different time periods, providing unique historical insight.
Lately, some commentary has focused on individuals entering the federal government with links to Palantir, Piter Thiel, and PayPal Mafia. The likes of Kash Patel, Elon Musk, David Sacks, JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy.
The narrative centers on their libertarian views, ruthless efficiency, and track record. From this foundation, far-fetched speculations are laid for structural changes in how government will operate. Especially around allocations of the DOD budget towards military-industrial incumbents. The case is made for said individuals to champion their alma mater firms for closer integration with government agencies and subsequent applications of "big data" and "big brother" tech. This will soon result in a more efficient government (with fewer employees) and total digital control over all aspects of our lives. First in the USA, then globally. Palantir is spotlighted for the big data analytical capabilities its software played in eliminating violent crimes in El Salvador.
But anyone who knows a thing or two about American history and its political system should expect less drama. To start, this won't be the first time Palantir's alumni entered government roles. The following individuals were there before. It was business as usual.
- Alex Stamos: Former member of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Advisory Committee, was also a member of Palantir's advisory board.
- Trae Stephens: appointed to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2019.
- Kevin Harrington: served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the DOD.
- Michael Kratsios: served as the Chief Technology Officer of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Going further, there is a well-established tradition of inviting the best and the brightest from the private sector into the federal government. Below is a very short list of such individuals in the 20th century:
- Joseph P. Kennedy Sr: Successful stock speculator and investor. The first chairman of a newly established SEC under FDR.
- Robert S. McNamara: President of Ford Motor Company (1960-1961) before becoming Secretary of Defense (1961-1968).
- William E. Simon: A businessman and investment banker who served as Secretary of the Treasury (1974-1977).
- Donald Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense under Presidents Ford and George W. Bush. Before his government service, Rumsfeld was CEO of G.D. Searle & Company.
- Henry Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Paulson was chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs before joining the government.
- Robert Rubin: Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999). Rubin started a career as an attorney, then moved to Goldman Sachs.
Prominent and even controversial, these individuals were not known to advance the interests of their former firms.
Additionally, U.S. law has several provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for executives of private firms entering the federal government. Here are some key regulations:
- Ethics in Government Act
- 18 U.S.C. § 208 (Conflicting Financial Interests)
- Federal Acquisition Regulation
- Procurement Integrity Act
As such
- Musk, as a member of the National Space Council, recused himself from discussions related to SpaceX.
- Thiel, as a member of the President's Transition Team, reportedly sold his Palantir shares to avoid conflicts of interest.
Yes, laws could be broken. "Regulatory capture" is a problem, but government institutions are not headed by school kids either. An up-and-coming district attorney, hungry for political points, will keep players in check. Media, always avid for a scandal, is never too far behind. Ultimately, the executive branch is overseen by Congress. A widely diverse pool of interests won't idly stand by, while some shrewd entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley will attempt to reshape the inner workings of the government.
Incoming department heads deserve the benefit of the doubt, but to expect radical change is to lose touch with reality. Institutional inertia is not a bug, but a feature.
#AmericanDynamism
The narrative centers on their libertarian views, ruthless efficiency, and track record. From this foundation, far-fetched speculations are laid for structural changes in how government will operate. Especially around allocations of the DOD budget towards military-industrial incumbents. The case is made for said individuals to champion their alma mater firms for closer integration with government agencies and subsequent applications of "big data" and "big brother" tech. This will soon result in a more efficient government (with fewer employees) and total digital control over all aspects of our lives. First in the USA, then globally. Palantir is spotlighted for the big data analytical capabilities its software played in eliminating violent crimes in El Salvador.
But anyone who knows a thing or two about American history and its political system should expect less drama. To start, this won't be the first time Palantir's alumni entered government roles. The following individuals were there before. It was business as usual.
- Alex Stamos: Former member of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Advisory Committee, was also a member of Palantir's advisory board.
- Trae Stephens: appointed to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2019.
- Kevin Harrington: served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the DOD.
- Michael Kratsios: served as the Chief Technology Officer of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Going further, there is a well-established tradition of inviting the best and the brightest from the private sector into the federal government. Below is a very short list of such individuals in the 20th century:
- Joseph P. Kennedy Sr: Successful stock speculator and investor. The first chairman of a newly established SEC under FDR.
- Robert S. McNamara: President of Ford Motor Company (1960-1961) before becoming Secretary of Defense (1961-1968).
- William E. Simon: A businessman and investment banker who served as Secretary of the Treasury (1974-1977).
- Donald Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense under Presidents Ford and George W. Bush. Before his government service, Rumsfeld was CEO of G.D. Searle & Company.
- Henry Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Paulson was chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs before joining the government.
- Robert Rubin: Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999). Rubin started a career as an attorney, then moved to Goldman Sachs.
Prominent and even controversial, these individuals were not known to advance the interests of their former firms.
Additionally, U.S. law has several provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for executives of private firms entering the federal government. Here are some key regulations:
- Ethics in Government Act
- 18 U.S.C. § 208 (Conflicting Financial Interests)
- Federal Acquisition Regulation
- Procurement Integrity Act
As such
- Musk, as a member of the National Space Council, recused himself from discussions related to SpaceX.
- Thiel, as a member of the President's Transition Team, reportedly sold his Palantir shares to avoid conflicts of interest.
Yes, laws could be broken. "Regulatory capture" is a problem, but government institutions are not headed by school kids either. An up-and-coming district attorney, hungry for political points, will keep players in check. Media, always avid for a scandal, is never too far behind. Ultimately, the executive branch is overseen by Congress. A widely diverse pool of interests won't idly stand by, while some shrewd entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley will attempt to reshape the inner workings of the government.
Incoming department heads deserve the benefit of the doubt, but to expect radical change is to lose touch with reality. Institutional inertia is not a bug, but a feature.
#AmericanDynamism
There are 147 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.6 million are owner-occupied and 34 million (or 40%) of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows.
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
#factoftheday #economics
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
#factoftheday #economics
Распространённая ошибка в дискуссиях – подмена значимости качественного и количественного аргументов. Человек делает верное качественное утверждение, но количественная составляющая упускается. Без неё тезис зачастую теряет смысл. Поймать такое оппоненту не всегда легко. Требуется знание контекста и натренированная аналитическая мышечная память.
Для примера, типовой аргумент сторонников легитимности Израиля – евреи покупали земли у арабов, и, следовательно, строили государство на своей земле. Так-то оно так, но есть нюанс.
К моменту основания Израиля, в мая 1948, евреи приобрели приблизительно два миллиона дёнюм (dunam, единица измерения площади, 1 дёнюм = 1000 м²) земли в Палестине, что составляло около 6% территории под Британским мандатном. Приобретённые земли были сконцентрированы в прибрежных регионах и долинах. Данная количественная поправка редко озвучивается, но она критически важна для реального понимания ситуации.
За полгода до декларации независимости, план ООН по разделу Палестины (the Partition Plan) предусматривал 56% подмандатных земель для нового государства.
#history
Для примера, типовой аргумент сторонников легитимности Израиля – евреи покупали земли у арабов, и, следовательно, строили государство на своей земле. Так-то оно так, но есть нюанс.
К моменту основания Израиля, в мая 1948, евреи приобрели приблизительно два миллиона дёнюм (dunam, единица измерения площади, 1 дёнюм = 1000 м²) земли в Палестине, что составляло около 6% территории под Британским мандатном. Приобретённые земли были сконцентрированы в прибрежных регионах и долинах. Данная количественная поправка редко озвучивается, но она критически важна для реального понимания ситуации.
За полгода до декларации независимости, план ООН по разделу Палестины (the Partition Plan) предусматривал 56% подмандатных земель для нового государства.
#history