Last night I watched the entire State of the Union speech for the first time. What can I say, I'm getting older. The absence of a historical perspective makes it impossible to perform a solid comparison. That said, a few things stood out.
- Vocabulary. It was wider and more natural than the usual spiel in front of cameras. Perhaps members of Congress are held in higher regard than the electorate.
- An excessive number of individuals and their personal stories for all sorts of praises.
- Rebellious gentleman from TX who was asked to leave the chamber.
As the speech progressed though, the number of self-contradictions exceeded my ability to keep count. Below are a few that I had the opportunity to note. Paraphrasing here.
- Make America affordable again while erecting tariffs.
- End unelected bureaucrats running our country while praising Elon.
- Permanent lower taxes (earlier tax cuts are soon to expire) and a balanced federal budget.- Drill baby drill, to get cheaper oil, yet the price has been range bound at $65-80 for more than two years and currently at the lower end of $66. The break-even price is said to be around $55.
- Announcement of TSMC pledging another sizeable investment to build a fab in AZ while trashing the CHIPS act. Yet, acknowledging at the same time that it's not the first investment the said company has made recently, thus implying it was done under the aforementioned legislation, which it was.
- Boasting about most deportations of illegals. A quick fact-checking suggests that during the first month, the current administration deported fewer people than Biden's last year's average.
- Claims of geriatric people receiving social security benefits. This has been refuted here. Some young DOGE fellows need to learn a bit of COBOL and SQL it appears.
- Reclaiming of sovereignty. From whom? I don't recall the US was under the rule of another state. A change in political leadership isn't that.
P - populism.
#politics
March 2025
- Vocabulary. It was wider and more natural than the usual spiel in front of cameras. Perhaps members of Congress are held in higher regard than the electorate.
- An excessive number of individuals and their personal stories for all sorts of praises.
- Rebellious gentleman from TX who was asked to leave the chamber.
As the speech progressed though, the number of self-contradictions exceeded my ability to keep count. Below are a few that I had the opportunity to note. Paraphrasing here.
- Make America affordable again while erecting tariffs.
- End unelected bureaucrats running our country while praising Elon.
- Permanent lower taxes (earlier tax cuts are soon to expire) and a balanced federal budget.- Drill baby drill, to get cheaper oil, yet the price has been range bound at $65-80 for more than two years and currently at the lower end of $66. The break-even price is said to be around $55.
- Announcement of TSMC pledging another sizeable investment to build a fab in AZ while trashing the CHIPS act. Yet, acknowledging at the same time that it's not the first investment the said company has made recently, thus implying it was done under the aforementioned legislation, which it was.
- Boasting about most deportations of illegals. A quick fact-checking suggests that during the first month, the current administration deported fewer people than Biden's last year's average.
- Claims of geriatric people receiving social security benefits. This has been refuted here. Some young DOGE fellows need to learn a bit of COBOL and SQL it appears.
- Reclaiming of sovereignty. From whom? I don't recall the US was under the rule of another state. A change in political leadership isn't that.
P - populism.
#politics
March 2025
The disappointment with the left gave us Trump 2.0. Right or wrong it's irrelevant now. The dissatisfaction, real and imaginary, could pale in comparison with what the current administration has in store. Many are clueless and find refuge in the throw-everthing-at-the-wall tactics, where some residue is destined to be net positive. Rampant cherry-picking and confirmation bias hide the unpleasantries.
Those applauding the cancelation of grants for research on menstrual cycles in transgender men are missing the boat on devastating cuts to NIH and other national labs, which wasn't properly funded, to begin with. (Bloomberg's article is behind a paywall, but the Odd Lots episode on the subject is free). This might have enormous negative outcomes for decades to come. It's worth remembering that government-sponsored scientific research was instrumental in this country's success story post-WW2.
People cheering up job cuts at the federal government in the name of efficiency are sticking their heads into the sand for what's brewing. I lived through the disintegration of the Soviet economy and witnessed what happens when enough people lose jobs. I'm not suggesting we're anywhere near the scale, but unintended consequences and multi-variable systems are impossible to predict and prepare for.
Many Trump voters, whom I know personally, welcomed and helped Ukrainian refugees under the U4U program, are oblivious to the potential shutting of said Biden-era initiative, with disastrous consequences for people caught in the middle — something which wasn't hard to predict given the anti-immigration rhetoric on the campaign trail.
Yes, we do have problems. Yes, democrats went overboard with lots of idiocies. Yes, we tried slow solutions for the national debt and they failed. However, it feels each passing week results in more instability and more shenanigans. The commander-in-chief is declining to rule out a recession, in case you've missed a hint to that during the State of the Union address. As of this writing, betting markets are pricing the probability of a US recession in 2025 at 37%. I would be a seller at this price.
I hope that people who were not satisfied with the color of their nails won't find both of their hands amputated.
#politics
March 2025
Those applauding the cancelation of grants for research on menstrual cycles in transgender men are missing the boat on devastating cuts to NIH and other national labs, which wasn't properly funded, to begin with. (Bloomberg's article is behind a paywall, but the Odd Lots episode on the subject is free). This might have enormous negative outcomes for decades to come. It's worth remembering that government-sponsored scientific research was instrumental in this country's success story post-WW2.
People cheering up job cuts at the federal government in the name of efficiency are sticking their heads into the sand for what's brewing. I lived through the disintegration of the Soviet economy and witnessed what happens when enough people lose jobs. I'm not suggesting we're anywhere near the scale, but unintended consequences and multi-variable systems are impossible to predict and prepare for.
Many Trump voters, whom I know personally, welcomed and helped Ukrainian refugees under the U4U program, are oblivious to the potential shutting of said Biden-era initiative, with disastrous consequences for people caught in the middle — something which wasn't hard to predict given the anti-immigration rhetoric on the campaign trail.
Yes, we do have problems. Yes, democrats went overboard with lots of idiocies. Yes, we tried slow solutions for the national debt and they failed. However, it feels each passing week results in more instability and more shenanigans. The commander-in-chief is declining to rule out a recession, in case you've missed a hint to that during the State of the Union address. As of this writing, betting markets are pricing the probability of a US recession in 2025 at 37%. I would be a seller at this price.
I hope that people who were not satisfied with the color of their nails won't find both of their hands amputated.
#politics
March 2025
With the benefit of hindsight, one can conclude that "buy election and sell inauguration" worked well this time.
Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.
What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.
The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now?
Happy trading!
#finance
March 2025
Now that the market is 10% off the all-time high, set less than a month ago, the speed with which said correction took place is worth noting. Over the past 100 years, there were 25-30 instances of 10%+ corrections. Some, but not all, preceded recessions. A 10%+ market correction occurring within just 3 weeks from the market peak would be approximately in the 75-80th percentile in terms of speed, based on historical data. This means a 3-week 10%+ correction is notably faster than average but not extremely rare.
What is different now, as compared to the 2022 slide, is that portfolio diversification did help. Yields went lower. Certain European and Chinese stocks went up. Gold too. Consumer staples and utilities held ground. Overconcentrated portfolios in the tech space got hammered. Looks like cross-sector rotation is behind us.
The biggest risk going forward remains a policy error. Who's buying the dip now?
Happy trading!
#finance
March 2025
Стоило гопникам надавать по щам, как попечители поспешили откреститься от них. Или этот глагол не совсем применим к мусульманам? При этом, сами гопники заявляют о применении баллистических ракет против авианосца и других военных кораблей. Палитесь ребята.
#AmericanImperialism
#AmericanImperialism
Спустя 11 лет они озвучили вердикт. Ложка дорога к обеду, господа.
https://www.echr.coe.int/w/judgment-concerning-ukraine-2
https://www.echr.coe.int/w/judgment-concerning-ukraine-2
ECHR
Judgment concerning Ukraine
Vyacheslavova and Others v. Ukraine 13/03/2025
Есть два типа людей. Первые призывают подняться сидя на диване. Вторые их игнорируют.
#twotypesofpeople
#twotypesofpeople