Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
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🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡- A high-speed chase between an Iranian intelligence officer on a bike, and a Mossad-operated truck armed with drones on the streets of Tehran.
The Iranian officer can be seen shooting twice at the vehicle.
The Iranian officer can be seen shooting twice at the vehicle.
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
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One of the hypersonic impacts in Haifa
People seem to be getting a bit carried away about how well Iran is doing against Israel. Iran surprised a lot of people with its capability to strike Israeli infrastructure, but this strategy alone will obviously mean they face a declining stockpile, while Israel has apparently established air superiority over much of the country.
The latest figures I've seen are that in the first three days of the war, Iran fired more than 270 missiles, with around 20 actually impacting. The vast majority of their drones seem to be getting intercepted. Most of the targets aren't of great value compared to what Israel is hitting. The strikes on Haifa's power plant yesterday seem like an exception. Israel hit over 100 targets its first day, and managed to take out the head of the IRGC and 6 top nuclear scientists. They are still striking Iran's military infrastructure daily.
The barrage on Israel yesterday was actually quite small. Some of the strikes were impressive, but they actually ended up launching far less than expected. Why? Because Israel targeted their launchers with their airforce as soon as the attack began. Iran has hypersonic missiles, a couple of which it apparently fired yesterday, but probably no more than a few dozen are operational, and that it is apparently using them already suggests it wants to restore maximum deterrence early at the cost of being in it for the long haul.
So as this drags on, Israel can begin degrading Iran's missile capacity and continue to wipe out key military infrastructure while Iran is limited to less precise rocket fire on Israel which is doing little to weaken their military. The problem for Israel remains that they can't hit Iran's key nuclear infrastructure without American hardware, which suggests they have started this war now with some confidence that they will eventually get American support, perhaps when Iran's air defences are degraded enough that it will be less risky for Trump politically.
Aside from something drastic like closing the Strait of Hormuz and massively upping the international pressure for a resolution, it seems like Iran will have to rely more on asymmetric warfare from its proxies, but without shattering Israeli public morale, which I don't think will happen, and after events of the last two years it doesn't seem like they are capable of dealing a serious blow against Israel either.
So I think Iran will most likely want some big face saving move (maybe they will feel landing hypersonic missiles in Israel already achieved this) and a shift to some kind of diplomatic arrangement that freezes things sooner rather than later.
The latest figures I've seen are that in the first three days of the war, Iran fired more than 270 missiles, with around 20 actually impacting. The vast majority of their drones seem to be getting intercepted. Most of the targets aren't of great value compared to what Israel is hitting. The strikes on Haifa's power plant yesterday seem like an exception. Israel hit over 100 targets its first day, and managed to take out the head of the IRGC and 6 top nuclear scientists. They are still striking Iran's military infrastructure daily.
The barrage on Israel yesterday was actually quite small. Some of the strikes were impressive, but they actually ended up launching far less than expected. Why? Because Israel targeted their launchers with their airforce as soon as the attack began. Iran has hypersonic missiles, a couple of which it apparently fired yesterday, but probably no more than a few dozen are operational, and that it is apparently using them already suggests it wants to restore maximum deterrence early at the cost of being in it for the long haul.
So as this drags on, Israel can begin degrading Iran's missile capacity and continue to wipe out key military infrastructure while Iran is limited to less precise rocket fire on Israel which is doing little to weaken their military. The problem for Israel remains that they can't hit Iran's key nuclear infrastructure without American hardware, which suggests they have started this war now with some confidence that they will eventually get American support, perhaps when Iran's air defences are degraded enough that it will be less risky for Trump politically.
Aside from something drastic like closing the Strait of Hormuz and massively upping the international pressure for a resolution, it seems like Iran will have to rely more on asymmetric warfare from its proxies, but without shattering Israeli public morale, which I don't think will happen, and after events of the last two years it doesn't seem like they are capable of dealing a serious blow against Israel either.
So I think Iran will most likely want some big face saving move (maybe they will feel landing hypersonic missiles in Israel already achieved this) and a shift to some kind of diplomatic arrangement that freezes things sooner rather than later.
Keith Woods
People seem to be getting a bit carried away about how well Iran is doing against Israel. Iran surprised a lot of people with its capability to strike Israeli infrastructure, but this strategy alone will obviously mean they face a declining stockpile, while…
Of course you could also follow the analysis of Eric Striker, the man with the worst track record on predictions of any living political analyst
Forwarded from Lebanese News and Updates
🇮🇷l🇺🇸 Preparations are underway to join the Israeli campaign against Iran if Trump gives the green light.
CENTCOM supports joining while senior administration officials oppose it, a US official tells i24News
CENTCOM supports joining while senior administration officials oppose it, a US official tells i24News
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🇺🇸 🛫 ➡️ ☪️ — Dozens of US warplanes are on their way to the Middle East immediately after Trump's speech
@CIG_Telegram
@CIG_Telegram
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🇺🇸 📣 ☮️ — CBS News, citing U.S. officials, reports that Donald Trump will not join Israel in its military operation against Iran.
@CIG_Telegram
@CIG_Telegram
The least Irish part of Ireland is officially the most filthy part of Ireland
Forwarded from Megatron
NEW:
🇮🇱🇺🇲 Trump begins purge of anti-Israeli military staff
Pentagon official Colonel Nathan McCormack was removed from his position at the Joint Chiefs of Staff for posts calling Israel a “death cult,” referring to Netanyahu and his ilk as “Judeo-supremacist cronies,” and asking whether the US is functioning as Israel’s proxy.
McCormack was serving as the Levant and Egypt branch chief at the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s J5 planning directorate.
@Megatron_ron
🇮🇱🇺🇲 Trump begins purge of anti-Israeli military staff
Pentagon official Colonel Nathan McCormack was removed from his position at the Joint Chiefs of Staff for posts calling Israel a “death cult,” referring to Netanyahu and his ilk as “Judeo-supremacist cronies,” and asking whether the US is functioning as Israel’s proxy.
McCormack was serving as the Levant and Egypt branch chief at the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s J5 planning directorate.
@Megatron_ron