Сито Сократа

​​A Syrian surprise

The Syrian front has become an issue for Vladimir Putin and his military. In just a few days, during a large-scale offensive, the forces of the Syrian paramilitary opposition based in Idlib province gained control over more than 100 settlements in northwestern Syria. The henchmen of the Syrian dictator Assad have lost control over the country's second largest city, Aleppo. According to the latest reports, the rebels attempted to advance to Hama and also occupied the airport near Tel Rifaat. The Syrian resistance forces, represented by the Syrian National Army, declare that their enemies are the Assadites, as well as their allies in the "axis of resistance", meaning primarily Iran. They are not interested in Syrian Christians and Kurds, and they are not going to fight them, they claim. But the Russian occupiers SNA are not to their liking, so their attitude towards the latter is hostile. Some reports suggest some Russian soldiers have already been killed in action.

Behind the rebels stands the Turkish military, the supervisors, sponsors, and organizers of the offensive that has remainedsuccessful at this stage. President Erdogan is playing his card, trying to oust Russia and Iran from Syria in order to exert more pressure on the Kremlin and Tehran, imposing his will on them in a strategically important region, especially in light of the advancement of the Turkish gas hub initiative.

It should be emphasized that the extremely successful offensive of opposition forces in the Aleppo region demonstrated several important points at once. The first one is related to the weakening of the positions of Iranian proxies in Syria after Israel clipped Hezbollah's wings in Lebanon during the operations of September-November 2024. Therefore, Assad in Damascus asks Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to send additional IRGC military units as a backbone of external support. Assad no longer has much hope for Moscow – this is the second conclusion.
Assad's trip to Putin showed that Russia's hands are tied by the war against Ukraine. But that's not all. In the previous stages of war, Damascus was supported by Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries. They were the ones who carried out purges on the ground after the bombings by the Aerospace Forces. Now Putin has no such resource, having turned into a “naked king”, therefore Russia’schaotic airstrikes on the rebel positions are nothing but animitation of vigorous assistance. This becomes especially obviousagainst the background of the resignation of the Russian militarycommander for Syria, General Kisel, which testifies to his totalincompetence.

Accordingly, a vacuum of power has arisen in Syria, which is being exploited by the Turks and their allies. Another point is alsoworth mentioning: the general mood in Assad's camp. Desertion cases in his army are especially striking as soldiers are withdrawing from huge areas in the country without a fight, leaving behind massive arsenals, including Iranian drones and Russian Pantsirs. It is rightly noted that, while the IRGC and Hezbollah “blocking detachments” existed, the Assadites kept fighting more or less, but now they have lost their “motivation”. In Damascus, tensions remain high. The fall of Aleppo signals the incapacity of the Syrian regime, its fragility in the face of rising challenges. The further developments seem rather gloomy for the Assadites. The same picture looms over Putin. In 2023, Prigozhin's rebellion exposed the structural weakness of Putinism, which is aggravated by fatigue from the long war against Ukraine. Although the Russian power machine is more complex than the Syrian one, there are significant parallels to be noted. Still, while Assad, in the conditions of a military uprising, could probably retain his bloody throne with the help of military aid from Iran, Putin has no such options.
Therefore, if something unexpected suddenly happens somewhere in Russia, like it did in Syria, there will be no one to rescue the Kremlin bosses.

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56.7K viewsDec 2 at 06:53

​​A Syrian surprise

The Syrian front has become an issue for Vladimir Putin and his military. In just a few days, during a large-scale offensive, the forces of the Syrian paramilitary opposition based in Idlib province gained control over more than 100 settlements in northwestern Syria. The henchmen of the Syrian dictator Assad have lost control over the country's second largest city, Aleppo. According to the latest reports, the rebels attempted to advance to Hama and also occupied the airport near Tel Rifaat. The Syrian resistance forces, represented by the Syrian National Army, declare that their enemies are the Assadites, as well as their allies in the "axis of resistance", meaning primarily Iran. They are not interested in Syrian Christians and Kurds, and they are not going to fight them, they claim. But the Russian occupiers SNA are not to their liking, so their attitude towards the latter is hostile. Some reports suggest some Russian soldiers have already been killed in action.

Behind the rebels stands the Turkish military, the supervisors, sponsors, and organizers of the offensive that has remainedsuccessful at this stage. President Erdogan is playing his card, trying to oust Russia and Iran from Syria in order to exert more pressure on the Kremlin and Tehran, imposing his will on them in a strategically important region, especially in light of the advancement of the Turkish gas hub initiative.

It should be emphasized that the extremely successful offensive of opposition forces in the Aleppo region demonstrated several important points at once. The first one is related to the weakening of the positions of Iranian proxies in Syria after Israel clipped Hezbollah's wings in Lebanon during the operations of September-November 2024. Therefore, Assad in Damascus asks Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to send additional IRGC military units as a backbone of external support. Assad no longer has much hope for Moscow – this is the second conclusion.
Assad's trip to Putin showed that Russia's hands are tied by the war against Ukraine. But that's not all. In the previous stages of war, Damascus was supported by Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries. They were the ones who carried out purges on the ground after the bombings by the Aerospace Forces. Now Putin has no such resource, having turned into a “naked king”, therefore Russia’schaotic airstrikes on the rebel positions are nothing but animitation of vigorous assistance. This becomes especially obviousagainst the background of the resignation of the Russian militarycommander for Syria, General Kisel, which testifies to his totalincompetence.

Accordingly, a vacuum of power has arisen in Syria, which is being exploited by the Turks and their allies. Another point is alsoworth mentioning: the general mood in Assad's camp. Desertion cases in his army are especially striking as soldiers are withdrawing from huge areas in the country without a fight, leaving behind massive arsenals, including Iranian drones and Russian Pantsirs. It is rightly noted that, while the IRGC and Hezbollah “blocking detachments” existed, the Assadites kept fighting more or less, but now they have lost their “motivation”. In Damascus, tensions remain high. The fall of Aleppo signals the incapacity of the Syrian regime, its fragility in the face of rising challenges. The further developments seem rather gloomy for the Assadites. The same picture looms over Putin. In 2023, Prigozhin's rebellion exposed the structural weakness of Putinism, which is aggravated by fatigue from the long war against Ukraine. Although the Russian power machine is more complex than the Syrian one, there are significant parallels to be noted. Still, while Assad, in the conditions of a military uprising, could probably retain his bloody throne with the help of military aid from Iran, Putin has no such options.
Therefore, if something unexpected suddenly happens somewhere in Russia, like it did in Syria, there will be no one to rescue the Kremlin bosses.

BY Сито Сократа