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Kadyrov's big plan
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has a clear beneficiary – the Chechnya leader, Ramzan Kadyrov. With each day that the war drags on, the Kremlin is becoming weaker, public trust in Vladimir Putin is sinking whole official ratings hardly reflect the real attitudes towards the president. Due to major war casualtieson the frontlines and massive dominance of Asian migrants in the rear, the society is becoming increasingly polarized and susceptible to trigger influences. The Chechnya leader is among those who sparks public rejection. His moves are becoming increasingly dangerous for the survival of the Putin regime.
The situational union between Putin and Kadyrov has beendysfunctional from the very start: the federal center is literally being stripped bare by Chechen hustlers as Moscow harbors hope they don’t dream of separatism. However, due to the wide-rangingfreedom and exceptional privileges to which Kadyrov is entitled, a solid foundation is being formed for exactly this scenario. From a militant ruler loyal to Putin, he has gradually grown into another version of rebellious Yevgeny Prigozhin, with all the ensuing consequences.
Kadyrov came into spotlight recently as he issued loud statements following a drone attack on the barracks of the Akhmat Kadyrov Police Regiment of the Chechen Interior Ministry, which left the premises damaged and four cadets injured. The Chechnya leader vowed retaliation for the attack, claiming he would slay 400 “Ukraine-NATO” soldiers for the four of his men that had been wounded. He also boasts of a personal 84,000-strong army, ready to be deployed in the warzone – a rather staggering figure given that it’s 10.5 times larger than the number of mercenaries the lateoligarch Prigozhin had at hand when he stopped quite short of Moscow as he launched a brazen march toward Moscow.
Moreover, if Kadyrov claims the force is combat-ready, this implies these troops have already undergone military training. An interesting point here: while Russia’s regular army is being systematically wiped out on the Ukrainian battlefields, Kadyrov's force appears to have trippled in size since 2022! However, while the Chechen padishah pledges to dispatch his troops for the Ukraine war, in reality he is preparing his men for totally different tasks.
Kadyrov’s immense wealth is no secret. To highlight the scale of his entourage’s sense of impunity, they recently attempted a raider takeover of Wildberries, a giant online trading platform, setting up a gang-style shootout right outside the Kremlin. And they got away with it, too.
It is noteworthy that Kadyrov has already executed an aggressive takeover of Chechnya, turning it pretty much into his private property. At the same time, Kadyrov's family make up a third of the republic's government – something that would definitely be impossible in any other region of the Russian Federation. We are seeing a copy of an Arab emir's model, and Kadyrov is already mulling power transfer to his decorated son Adam.
However, it would be foolish to suggest that Ramzan Kadyrov is about to step down any time soon. Kadyrov is closely monitoring the developments around the Syria case after the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Putin’s political peer, imploded within 11 days after the army of rebels launched an offensive toward the country’s capital. Against the backdrop of the mounting weakness of central authorities in Russia, confirmed by Prigozhin's march last year, Moscow’s ongoing nuclear saber-rattling, as well as the strengthening of the multinational component across Russia, Kadyrov is only awaiting a convenient moment to execute his big plan for which he has already amassed significant power resources.
While the plans of Kadyrov's men are quite obvious, Putin's ability to successfully neutralize is not so clear. If the Kremlin fails to rein in their Chechen belligerent “allies” soon, Moscow may well repeat the fate of Damascus. Let's hope that Bashar al-Assad offers some sound advice to his Russian counterpart in this regard.
BY Сито Сократа
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