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Scaling Law 和 The Bitter Lesson 其实就是「我们还没有达到扩展简单方法能走到的极限」的另一种说法,也是一个类似摩尔定律的自我实现预言,会在它真无法生效的时候失效。赌注是失效的尽头前是不是有他们说的 AGI。目前最新的两个模型代表最大的资源下的训练,出来以后到处看人复读这两个词。人们开始习惯了 LLM 是这样的东西,不再要求它做它做不到的事情了。看着像是数码产品一样在跑分上不断变高就满足了,就值得欢呼了。但是对我来说,看不到范式转换级别的变化。我不觉得目前的范式尽头有AGI,即便如此 LLM 给人类社会的冲击目前也还只是释放的开始吧。

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Scaling Law 和 The Bitter Lesson 其实就是「我们还没有达到扩展简单方法能走到的极限」的另一种说法,也是一个类似摩尔定律的自我实现预言,会在它真无法生效的时候失效。赌注是失效的尽头前是不是有他们说的 AGI。目前最新的两个模型代表最大的资源下的训练,出来以后到处看人复读这两个词。人们开始习惯了 LLM 是这样的东西,不再要求它做它做不到的事情了。看着像是数码产品一样在跑分上不断变高就满足了,就值得欢呼了。但是对我来说,看不到范式转换级别的变化。我不觉得目前的范式尽头有AGI,即便如此 LLM 给人类社会的冲击目前也还只是释放的开始吧。

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