Инсайты Матвеева Insights of Matveev

My remark on Kirill Semenov's comment in Telegram about the future of Russian military bases in Syria.

All three options (reducing the operational terms of both bases from 49 to 5-10 years; Russia's withdrawal from Khmeimim, keeping the limited naval base in Tartus, like in the Soviet times; Moscow's refusal of both bases in favor of "special agreements" with Damascus on the use of Syria's transport infrastructure by the Russian military) are likely to be discussed.

Yet, a most negative scenario for Russia also couldn't be ruled out, whereas the bases would be kept until the summer of 2025 only. It could be combined with the third scenario, which is not the worst option for Moscow, but maybe not.

Much here depends on the effectiveness of the Western pressure on the new Syrian authorities. And not solely by the US (not by chance, Washington "suspended" the lift of sanctions till July 2025), but also the Europeans (Germany, France), who want to "win back" after the previous "fell out" of the Syrian crisis due to the successful actions of Iran and Russia in 2012-2024.

I assume that the issue of preserving the bases in Syria is likely to be discussed at a possible Putin and Trump meeting. Although, as mentioned in my previous comments, Syria is not among Washington's top priorities in the Middle East.

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318 viewsedited  Feb 4 at 04:21

My remark on Kirill Semenov's comment in Telegram about the future of Russian military bases in Syria.

All three options (reducing the operational terms of both bases from 49 to 5-10 years; Russia's withdrawal from Khmeimim, keeping the limited naval base in Tartus, like in the Soviet times; Moscow's refusal of both bases in favor of "special agreements" with Damascus on the use of Syria's transport infrastructure by the Russian military) are likely to be discussed.

Yet, a most negative scenario for Russia also couldn't be ruled out, whereas the bases would be kept until the summer of 2025 only. It could be combined with the third scenario, which is not the worst option for Moscow, but maybe not.

Much here depends on the effectiveness of the Western pressure on the new Syrian authorities. And not solely by the US (not by chance, Washington "suspended" the lift of sanctions till July 2025), but also the Europeans (Germany, France), who want to "win back" after the previous "fell out" of the Syrian crisis due to the successful actions of Iran and Russia in 2012-2024.

I assume that the issue of preserving the bases in Syria is likely to be discussed at a possible Putin and Trump meeting. Although, as mentioned in my previous comments, Syria is not among Washington's top priorities in the Middle East.

BY Инсайты Матвеева Insights of Matveev