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Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @Tatarigami_UA: When I talk about the war and write “both sides in a war can lose,” it often generates confusion. Many assume that war is a zero-sum game - that one side’s loss is inherently the other’s gain. But this isn’t always the case. War is not an end in itself, it is a tool of statecraft, intended to achieve political objectives. When neither party accomplishes its strategic aims, both effectively lose - having expended immense resources and, more critically, human capital, without achieving their desired outcomes. In such cases, both sides may find themselves in a worse position than they were before the war began.

The Iran-Iraq War is a decent and recent historical example. After nearly a decade of fighting, both countries suffered serious human and economic losses, only to return to roughly the same territorial status quo - diminished and destabilized.

In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s fundamental objective is to preserve its independence and maintain control over most of its territory. This, in effect, means denying Russia its core strategic aim.

Russia’s realistic goal, by contrast, may no longer be outright occupation, but rather rendering Ukraine unviable as a functioning state -undermining its economy, depopulating its cities, and precipitating long-term sociopolitical collapse. But achieving this comes at an extraordinary cost for Russia as well. The Russian state itself suffers economic and demographic decline. Even a "successful" outcome in Ukraine could leave Russia so depleted that it enters its own period of internal instability and geopolitical marginalization.

If Ukraine manages to repel Russian advances, why wouldn’t that constitute a victory? Because, as noted, winning a war is not only about holding ground - it’s about what remains afterward. A country left with ruined infrastructure, lost territories, millions of its citizens displaced, and a dramatically aged population with a GDP per capita over twice smaller than Mexico cannot claim a strategic win.

If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention

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805 viewsJun 10 at 22:26

Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @Tatarigami_UA: When I talk about the war and write “both sides in a war can lose,” it often generates confusion. Many assume that war is a zero-sum game - that one side’s loss is inherently the other’s gain. But this isn’t always the case. War is not an end in itself, it is a tool of statecraft, intended to achieve political objectives. When neither party accomplishes its strategic aims, both effectively lose - having expended immense resources and, more critically, human capital, without achieving their desired outcomes. In such cases, both sides may find themselves in a worse position than they were before the war began.

The Iran-Iraq War is a decent and recent historical example. After nearly a decade of fighting, both countries suffered serious human and economic losses, only to return to roughly the same territorial status quo - diminished and destabilized.

In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s fundamental objective is to preserve its independence and maintain control over most of its territory. This, in effect, means denying Russia its core strategic aim.

Russia’s realistic goal, by contrast, may no longer be outright occupation, but rather rendering Ukraine unviable as a functioning state -undermining its economy, depopulating its cities, and precipitating long-term sociopolitical collapse. But achieving this comes at an extraordinary cost for Russia as well. The Russian state itself suffers economic and demographic decline. Even a "successful" outcome in Ukraine could leave Russia so depleted that it enters its own period of internal instability and geopolitical marginalization.

If Ukraine manages to repel Russian advances, why wouldn’t that constitute a victory? Because, as noted, winning a war is not only about holding ground - it’s about what remains afterward. A country left with ruined infrastructure, lost territories, millions of its citizens displaced, and a dramatically aged population with a GDP per capita over twice smaller than Mexico cannot claim a strategic win.

If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention

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