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BREAKING: Prediction market odds of a recession hitting in 2025 have fallen to a new low of 27%.

Since November 1st, odds of a recession beginning in 2025 have HALVED, from 54% to 27%, according to @Kalshi.

Meanwhile, GDP growth estimates are rising with ~3% GDP growth expected in Q4 2024.

As inflation rebounds and the Fed cuts rates, markets are pricing-in a lower probability of a recession.

Are rate hikes coming back?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)



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BREAKING: Prediction market odds of a recession hitting in 2025 have fallen to a new low of 27%.

Since November 1st, odds of a recession beginning in 2025 have HALVED, from 54% to 27%, according to @Kalshi.

Meanwhile, GDP growth estimates are rising with ~3% GDP growth expected in Q4 2024.

As inflation rebounds and the Fed cuts rates, markets are pricing-in a lower probability of a recession.

Are rate hikes coming back?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

BY The Kobeissi Letter




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Again, in contrast to Facebook, Google and Twitter, Telegram's founder Pavel Durov runs his company in relative secrecy from Dubai. Telegram was co-founded by Pavel and Nikolai Durov, the brothers who had previously created VKontakte. VK is Russia’s equivalent of Facebook, a social network used for public and private messaging, audio and video sharing as well as online gaming. In January, SimpleWeb reported that VK was Russia’s fourth most-visited website, after Yandex, YouTube and Google’s Russian-language homepage. In 2016, Forbes’ Michael Solomon described Pavel Durov (pictured, below) as the “Mark Zuckerberg of Russia.” After fleeing Russia, the brothers founded Telegram as a way to communicate outside the Kremlin's orbit. They now run it from Dubai, and Pavel Durov says it has more than 500 million monthly active users. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces "destroy the invaders wherever we can." Although some channels have been removed, the curation process is considered opaque and insufficient by analysts.
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